Silver is lagging gold and will need to rise 110% to complete the multi year cup. Once completed a backtest to significant support at $34 can be expected before a huge rise and resumption of the 2001 bull market.
Gold is completing a massive multi-year cup and handle pattern. After breaking 2011 ATHs, price is back testing the breakout and forming a handle. A break about the 1900s would signal a resumption of the 2001 bull market.
Coffee is bouncing off long term support. The RSI is making higher lows and stochastics are turning up. We could retest the recent lows over the coming months as the right shoulder is established but the picture looks constructive. We are still in stealth mode so but how long is that going to last?
Wheat is consolidating at the head and shoulders neckline. This forms a multi-year basing pattern. I expect several weeks are needed for the RSI and stochastics to work back from being overbought. This will present an attractive entry point for a multi-year bull market.
Coffee is the laggard in the soft commodity complex
Since June 2020:
- Bloomberg Agriculture Index +23%
- WT Coffee +6%
This could soon change:
- Head and shoulders bottom in formation
- Divergence on the RSI
- La Nina in 2020-21 could reduce coffee production in Brazil, the world's largest producer
The cannabis market has had a volatile set of years with its first mania peaking in 2018 and the crash that followed.
Tilray has had a rough couple of years working off the excesses of that mania phase with the stock declining 95%.
Since March though prices have been stabilizing and are showing signs of strength.
A move to the upside will break the 2018...
Central banks can print currency but they can't print wheat!
While tech and high growth stocks were in favour during the economic expansion, hard assets and necessity goods are likely to be in favour during the stagflationary period to come. Even in a recession, people need to eat!
We have broken the 2009 downtrend and formed an inverse head and shoulders as a...