Caerbanog

Caerbanog

BITFINEX:BTCUSD Just a reminder to self. Check back in late May.

Caerbanog Updated 

Bitcoin just broke out of a major threatening descending trendline. This puts the pattern probabilities back towards a big bullish penant where bulls and bears exhaust each other into a middle ground accumulation area. Historically, bitcoin has never dumped after a long volatility tightening so my bets would be on a break up. And it will be massive. The money...

Caerbanog Updated 

s3.amazonaws.com There has been substantially more volume during major dumps, suggesting more people buy the dip early and sell the pump late. This indicates the long term bull rally is still healthy. There should be enough steam to push to 1500 EUR but BTC is very overextended into longs, artificially pumped by the Bitfinex fiat liquidity problems, and...

Caerbanog

If you followed my previous trade on this same chart you already know how closely BTC is repeating itself. While there is a chance 'things will be different this time' the smart bet is to follow the winning trade. Notice the perfect pattern of low volatility price consolidation, a sudden pump into an RSI squeeze, a sharp correction sending ROC from one side to...

Caerbanog Updated 

I began making this chart at the beginning of December after observing that the June2016 and the October 2015 pumps were preceded by a long period of low R.O.C. on a raising RSI. So far the prediction went well and it appeared that this could easily go parabolic into the 1000 EUR region. However BTC is at a pivot point after just forming a tentative short term...

Caerbanog Updated 

Testing idea publishing :) We are consolidating arbitration spreads between CNY and USD/EUR. China was paying almost 10% premium for the pump. Once exchanges get to more reasonable levels pump will have fuel to resume. Chop within the support cloud will add fuel to this action. You may take this opportunity to scale into a long or just wait for the breakout. Stops...