Reasons for the paradox in this trade:
Trump's impeachment is uneventful at this moment in time
Yet this impeachment may cost him his re-election creating a possibility for easier trade negotiations
With AUD off to the highs especially with there being good data today, let's see how far this thing goes
Despite the RBA setting a dovish when it comes to all things $AUD this spike in price action has caught my eye, enough for me to justify a pre-emptive move in the name of $AUD strength.
Trump's impeachment at the house will not have an impact because the senate where Republicans hold the majority will not vote against their own political leader (well at least...
NG shorts have been due to the warmer or not so cold winters currently taken place in the US.
Despite other commodities seeing strength these winters must be getting warm!
I have just closed out a +8% trade and I am going long again.
The initial fundamentals where:
Brazillian drought
US-China trade war increasing agriculture exports out of Brazil
Weak $BRLUSD
Although some of these fundamentals are starting to wane, the technicals continue to show that Coffee has more to go
Euro is not the strongest right now, and with what seems to be a currently risk favourable environment CADEUR long is a favourable addition to my portfolio.
This is a pre-emptive entry before the break will still have the potential to generate alpha via the swap rate.
