The South African 10 year bond yield has found support off the intersection of the 200dma and the previous change of polarity point between 9.55%-9.65%. Momentum seems to be shifting up which could see us move back to the top of the range at around 11.16%.
S. Africa 10 Year Bond Yield (ZA10Y) | As noted in previous research, buyers of SA bonds have taken an interest around the 10.30 to 10.40% range since Q1 2022, with the same occurring during last week. Over the medium term, SA debt is trending lower (i.e. higher yields), with the 2 Std Dev, 200-day linear regression channel moving higher. At current levels, the...
SA bonds trade at a multi-year high, having broken out of a long term base. At current levels, taking a short term view, the yield on the ZA10Y is strong but 'near overbought' with a 7-day RSI reading of 85 (oversold in fixed terms). I've also noted the yield testing the rising trend line which extends back to the swing highs of both March 2022 and March 2021. A...
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Led by the US, SA yields have dropped strongly since April. (When yields fall, bond prices are rising). From here it looks like a re-test of 8.65. Fundamental story remains weak in the Republic but while US fixed income is rallying, hard to see South Africa not following.
SA 10 YR yields are climbing steeply (bond prices falling). Given the backdrop of rising global rates, keep an eye closely to this chart. We have broken the 200 dma and the trend is firmly higher. This will also weigh heavily on the ZAR, and I would expect USDZAR to trade significantly higher as these yields climb. Next stop on the chart is 9.36. You have been warned!
South African 10Y bonds have bounced off strong resistance. Likely to pull back to zones indicated by arrows. Under these circumstances, this will be ZAR negative, putting an end(or pause) to the rand's rally since the begging of April. It is also to be noted that COT positioning among non commercial traders for the ZAR is up by 3000 long and down 2000 short...
Bonds selling off at yield support / price resistance, after huge corrective rally
Who would have thought that SA10y would trade at the same yield today, than: - Before it was downgraded to junk - Before it added USD debt from the IMF (imminent) - Before Covid depression #ChaseForYield
- After a long sideways consolidation, SA10y broke out at 9.3% in March. - Yield rose to 13% - The correction has been fast as well - In my view, best case another 50bps lower (9.50-9.30%)
TVC:ZA10Y Strong resistance around 9.55 Rising wedge still in place and last two bars looking nicely bearish. Hopefully we get some drop here.
TVC:ZA10Y Testing bottom of rising wedge posted few weeks back. Break bellow means lower interest rate in South Africa
TVC:ZA10Y Making rising wedge with rand strength I guess will see better yield and drop in interest rates.
South Africa 10 year Bond yield to 12.50%
1-Day Chart I identified 3 occasions where the 20 dma crossed over the 50 dma. That is very Bullish. The bounce of the 200 dma is further indication of tough times ahead.
TVC:ZA10Y After braking cup and handle formation it looks on its way to 10.4%-10.6% or another 120bps from here. By the looks of it interest rate will rise in South Africa