In this video, it was difficult to explain everything
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The first thing we look at is the
3-month bill the price of this bond
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Is set to drop as of this writing
Later the price will be baked into the market
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In about 4 days from now
This is very important to understand
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Because the financial market is backed by
Bonds
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Once you understand bonds then you...
In the previous Weekly Market Insight, I directed the technical spotlight to a long-term harmonic equivalent AB=CD bullish structure on the 5-year US Treasury yield weekly chart in a market trending higher since August 2020. The AB=CD zone, as you can see, has offered this market a technical floor since mid-March, denoted by the 100% projection at 3.243%.
What’s...
Interest rate pricing has a huge effect across many financial markets at present – the correlation between short-term rates, rates volatility and the USD is certainly evident.
However, with such a big window for increased volatility in interest rates pricing, as traders try and price the prospect of a 25bp or 50bp hike at the 22 March FOMC, as well as peak fed...
hi all
as you know this will efect directly on crypto and because of this i did this analysis
so i think it will drop to the red area
what do you think ?
The information provided on this Page does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice and you should not treat any of the website's content as such. this...
It all seems that the 30s, 10s and 07s had all fallen below the EFFR.
Now, it is the turn of the 05s. But I think it should also FALL soon.
The implication?
Looks like the Fed rate hike is coming to an END. If there is a further hike of 50bps next month as ANTICIPATED, this would potentially put ALL the yield curve below the EFFR. And that might be a POLICY...
- Looking for US5Y-Yield to move above DEC Monthly Pivot
- Followed by a drop to DEC S1 = GAP
- Dollar-Index should follow Yield and weaken after 1st week of DEC
The treasury yields have been in a decline for many decades, on the other side we have a very unique situation in the equity market. We have over evaluations in many markets, especially in the tech sector that was fueled by the billions of dollars pumped into our economy during he pandemic. The interest rates were heavily suppressed and this country experienced...
If Fed continues to hike AND shrink balance sheet therefore doing demand destruction then credit will be So Tight that US economy will contract and present recession will become a Depression.
Such a conditions could make Nasdaq drop another 20% and SPX another 12% from present levels
This shows expected interest payments as a moving average divergence around current interest payments which acts as a moving average that is delayed by one to two years. Anyways, the current "future" interest payments as calculated by the US05Y yield have never had a larger divergence from current payments. It is expected that in one to two years, US interest...
5 year bond yields in the US look like they might be topping out.
Incurs a negative bias on the wider economy.
Return to the historical trend around the yellow line?
The US5Y looks ready to break above the US10Y rate for bonds , signaling an inversion of the yield curve, the number one precursor to each recession in the US. The 10 year is sitting 3/1000 of a percent higher right now. When they cross I expect the market to turn red today.
The breakout of the US10Y from its cup and handle pattern dating back to June 2019...
