10Y Bonds are overbought kissing 200 MA
RSI OB
MACD OB
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This is a sign the ASX could bounce as 10 years pull-back from overbought and 200 MA being resistance.
If bonds reak above 200 MA it signals a continuance in market fear and scepticism.
US10Y Already found broke above 200 MA and it is now a supporting moving average, bad sign ASX could follow.
The market is currently pricing 7 rate hikes ending in the Q2-Q4 2023 range.
To quote Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor of the RBA:
"Inflation has increased in Australia, but it remains lower than in many other countries; in underlying terms, inflation is 2.6 per cent and in headline terms it is 3.5 per cent. Higher prices for petrol and other commodities will...
dot pointed CPI data from statista.
determining from history what correlation and effect rates and CPI have on asset prices
Australian housing especially.
US 2Y bond yields melt up are the Central Banks losing control of the narrative and inflation continues to skyrocket causing pain around the world. AU2Y yield faced the same fate not to long ago. Yields have an inverse relationship to bonds as investors no longer interested in holding government bonds the sell and this selling causes higher yields.
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Like the UK, Korea, Canada, Australian yields are testing LT trend resistance.
In this case, it is also a descending wedge. It needs to take out 1.85% before we get very excited
As the Australian 10 Year Yield has hit the 50% Fib Level, I am going Long Bonds (Short Yields)
Entry 1.5
Target 1
Stop loss 1.65
I believe the market reaction to Tapering (Yields going up) will be faded and yields will soon be back down to support levels.
Cheers,
Kavi
We are looking at the monthly chart, as you can see a few months back rates failed to break above the trend line , Aussie bond rates look to fall lower 0.9476 could be the next target, even lower due to fundamentals( I'm sure we can all see what's happening around the world)
Up dates to be posted
Maybe they should buy some bitcoin, cause not even 4 billion a week can pump there bonds.
Just wasting Aussie Taxpayers money on a worthless asset.
They really need to wake up before they get left behind.
Bond Yields are going higher and fast. Since January bond yields have increased across the board, rising quickly in the USA, Australia, New Zealand and Canada especially.
Economies are rebounding and looking to show significant GDP growth during 2021 thanks to the rollout of the vaccine and reopening. This growth may (In the case of the US) be fuelled by...
As the gap rapidly grows between the Australian 10 Year Rates and Japanese 10 Year Rate, the AUDJP carry trade becomes even more desirable. This week as the pair soared above 83.50 - levels that it has not seen since late in 2018 and the currency pair is currently trading around 83.6.
There are several fundamental factors driving this trend.
Australia's economy...
