Fundamentals :
Russia's exports fell sharply after the invasion in 2022.
Russian trade surplus continues between exports and import has fallen in the last 18 months.
"...the limited number of potential buyers for Russian crude and refined products increased their bargaining power, allowing purchasers to demand greater discounts to the global market"...
Aggressive enough a long-term forecast for the pair $USDRUB.
90->70->105->80->165->105->135->23-35 (in perspective of 2027 year and further)
Does not constitute a recommendation.
#investing #stocks #idea #forecast #furoreggs
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We last looked into the USDRUB pair 4 months ago (October 06 2023, see chart below) when we got the most optimal sell entry and easily hit our 95.000 target:
This time we transition to the 1W time-frame where the long-term trend is more evident, and it remains bullish within a Channel Up pattern that is holding since The June 27 2022 market bottom. The 1D...
Many so-called "experts" claimed that sanctions were ineffective, citing the fact that the Russian ruble had been artificially lowered to 50 rubles per dollar (as if this were a positive outcome).
However, in reality, when a country is heavily sanctioned and isolated from the rest of the world, its imports decrease significantly while oil exports remain...
🚨 I expect the upward trend in the USDRUB currency pair to continue, I think that we will see a weak ruble by the end of 2022 - everything is on the chart, good luck in making your own decisions!
🔹 TP1 - 77
🔹 TP2 - 92
❌ STOP 50 - Idea canceled
The U.S. Dollar is set to continue gaining against the Russian Ruble, so whatever financial situation has been going on since June 2022 we are likely to continue getting more of the same. Whatever sociopolitical dynamics have been playing out, not much is set to change based on this chart.
There was a small correction between October-November, but the dynamics...
Explore the recent dynamics of the USD/RUB currency pair as it undergoes a decline from multiple price levels. This shift in market sentiment brings forth a compelling scenario for traders and investors, prompting a closer look at the contributing factors behind the downward movement.
On the presented chart we have prepared, you can see correlations of Ruble currency with Telecoms, Steel producing, Concrete producing, Land transport and Medicine. As you can see Ruble is building a solid ground to become a back end for the developing world destroyed by conflicts and fist fights. ATR is going down and from the june it shows backward correlation...
The weekly price floor of the ruble will definitely be tested again (0.006544).
The price at its weekly bottom is completely empty of buyers. Shadvi Boland is also a confirmation of this.
But now is not the time
At this time, due to the Israeli-Palestinian war, the ruble has a price break and can experience growth.
But Russia is getting weaker and weaker.
Not...
The USDRUB pair is trading on a Fibonacci Channel Up with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) providing the first level of Support. Coming of a 1D MACD Bullish Cross, the price is on the 3rd mini Channel phase (orange) within the 1.0 and 1.5 Fibonacci levels, same as the previous (green) has been within 0.5 - 1.0 Fib and the one before (blue) within the 0.0 - 0.5...
USD:RUB is now re-testing last months high of 73:1, which has been an area of interest since early 2020.
Having formed a bullish wedge in the process, if broken upwards, 75:1, 78:1, 80:1 are logical targets for ladder sells. Technically, classical charting principals dictate a target of 85, which coincides with the last real area of historic price action for...
Short term:
USD/RUB right now in resistance zone MOEX:USDRUB_TOM (95.5).
DXY right now touched strong resistance area TVC:DXY (104.5).
But globally:
RSI in USD/RUB show great correction that mean unloading before next rising moves.
RUB continue feel heaviness by no investments.
Government have no critical ideas to solve the problems.
My position:
I wait...
Based on the current wave structure of the impulse, there's a possibility for the correction to continue, especially if the price doesn't secure a position above the moving averages. A potential target for this correction could be in the region of 89.
Price has reached strong fibo level (96.64) and we can see bearish 1 Week engulfing candle forming that shows selling presure.
Generally what is happening? I draw 2 scenarios how price can act in the nearest future.
1 scenario: price will revers at about 97 rubles or 113 rubles by making sellers liquidity area and will head down to grab buyers liquidity (...
No new known macroeconomic factors could cause the current ruble devaluation. They say sanctions, some say a drop in imports ECONOMICS:RUIMP , others drop in exports ECONOMICS:RUEXP , brain drain, discounts on Russian oil, etc. Some blame the Prigozhin mutiny, but it doesn't change economic or political perspectives of Russia.
In my opinion, all these factors...
