European Union Carbon Allowances (EUAs) rose close to 19% in the past month (16/01/2023-15/02/2023). In its quarterly publication released on Monday 13th February 2023, the European Commission revised upwards its economic growth forecast for the Eurozone to 0.9% in 2023 from 0.3% previously. Moreover, it expects the trading block to avoid recession. With the...
Trialogue discussions in progress
The ‘Fit for 55’ legislative package proposed by the European Commission in the summer of 2021 is likely to be the catalyst for the most meaningful reform of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme since the programme began in 2005. A lot of progress had been made in getting to a final agreement, with the European Parliament...
(Chart view looks weird, see image below instead)
Here's a pattern I've enjoyed emerging for the past few months. It seems to not be following the usual rules regarding support and resistance lines, which is why I missed it at first. That is likely due to the nature of these CO2 credits and the way they are traded. To me it seems pretty clear that it at least...
On Friday 28 October, EU carbon emission allowances (EUA) had extended their largest weekly gain in 5 years following a strong rally over the preceding six days1. This happened during a week when the first ‘Fit for 55’ proposal was agreed2. The EU has strengthened targets for CO2 emissions from road transportation.
To understand this price action, it is important...
Bullish clues:
- Strong uptrend : x4 in 1 year
- Symmetrical triangle , a continuation pattern
- Above the neutrality zone on the Relative Strength Index (RSI > 50) , with a strong support
- The 40 Exponential Moving Average is a good support
- Stay above the 70% retracement zone
Objective:
My first objective is €89, the last swing high, reached...
Hello again to my "Crazy Edition". EUA carbon futures up 370% since the beginning of the year and with new record highs today. Talk about (not so) "transitory" inflation.
how exactly does this work? how exactly does this work?how exactly does this work?how exactly does this work?how exactly does this work?how exactly does this work?how exactly does this work?
Carbon (EUA) is a very technical market, as you can tell from my previous charts. Dec20 contract breached a strong resistance level and it could aim for €30/t. Additional support has been felt by fundamentals and Brexit developments.
In the short-term, the market could be bullish and attempt to set a new trading range, above the €26/t. That said, I doubt EUAs...
Hello folks,
A number of fundamental changes have affected EU ETS allowances, which are currently breaching MA200 - a strong technical level.
Weak EUETS auctions, low/negative dark spreads and Brexit concerns have provided pressure. Technically, Fibonacci 61%(used for resistance levels), and MA200 have been breached. All technicals, except RSI (which is not my...
Heya,
In the previous post, I shared with you an ambitious thought, which was predominantly based on a fundamental view rather than a technical view. Hence, I set a tight stop-loss.
Now, we see carbon testing some support levels, which I'm not confident it can breach in the short-term. That said, Brexit developments next week may provide some further direction....
Carbon as a market has been following very closely technical signs in 2018. European Commision introduced Market Stability Reserve (MSR) a policy that aims to reduce the surplus of carbon allowances we are currently seeing in this market.
This analysis argues that EUAs tested the 21.40 three times but failed to breach it. That said, the triple top formation never...
