CME: E-Mini S&P 500 Options ( CME_MINI:ES1! )
On March 24th, I published a trade idea, “Buckle Your Seatbelt for a Market Correction”, where I suggested that the US stock market was due for a major correction. Buying a Put contract on CME E-Mini S&P 500 Futures would be a trade to express this market view.
How is this trade panning out?
• On March 24th, the...
RSI hit oversold last night, expecting a rebound next week.
Decided to take a small long position with both calls and stocks, don;t really trust this market, lol.
Today was yet another amazing trade off a long term volume profile level for over 50 points on the CME_MINI:ES1! S&P500 E-mini futures.
I want to document these trades as teachable moments because I think Volume Profile is an absolutely amazing tool that should be in ever trader's toolbox!
WTF was that? 15 minute pump, 15 minute dump. Talk about a bull trap.
I don't recommend going long until after Israel bombs Iran, that should cause the daily to go oversold. Look to play the bounce a day or two after it happens.
Note: 15 min chart, ignore the indicators, they just show up because of my template
Forgive me for using MES, but it’s easier because I don’t have to clear any existing markup. I’ve been watching this H&S pattern form for a while now and looks very clean on the 8 hour chart here. The measured move for the breakdown takes us to 5000. I expect that we retest the neckline and clean up the imbalances (FVGs) in the process before we ultimately get...
NQ and RTY filled the gap from yesterday, but ES still has a small open gap. Also, MFI isn't moving much. I see lots of stuff in the red as well.
Running errands today, staying out.
Well, I posted last night that I wasn't gonna trade. Expecting a bounce tomorrow, but probably too small to make it wort teh risk. If a market can melt up, it can melt down as well.
My advice is to just stay cash and take a break.
MFI went oversold last night, but there's also an open futures gap. Don't have time to watch the market today so I took the easy money and cashed out. I think it'll double bottom before going up because of the open gap. Guessing TSLA tanks on earnings.
Gold down big caused Brazil (EWZ) to go red. Barely made any money on those calls.
I don't like the fact that the market didn't bounce with MFI oversold on my 3 hr chart, so at this point, I'm inclined to wait until the daily indicators go oversold before buying the dip.
Why give away your profits for the year? Makes more sense to be cautious. Gonna sit back and watch Iran and Israel do their thing.
All 3 indicators are oversold, but quite frankly I'm not very bullish. I'd rather short the pumps at this point. Probably not trading tomorrow.
My best guess is that Israel will attack on April 26th, because it's my birthday, lol.
After the S&P 500 market absorbed the news about the retaliatory attack from Israel to Iran with a large moved to the downside buyers into the market. The question is is that buying sellers buying to take profits or has it gotten cheap enough that buyers are entering the market. Pay attention to Sunday nights opening and Asia's response to get guidance for Monday....
My God. If the SETUP used is correct, technology companies will melt the SPX index.
I won't even write a text explaining why, because no one likes reading.
I will post the bearish pivot combined with a buy trap. What a thing, right?
Supports: 4933 for the moment. Medium-term secondary support (15/20 days): 4742.
I'd better keep quiet. Because things always...
Here are my levels after a few weeks off. Bullish trend was broken with the drop below the upward trendline. Now trading below key emas. Green box represents important support as price pulls back to key fibs and the 200 sma. Watch for outsized move in either direction due to option volatility. Bounce back into the ema cloud or break of support are equally...
