Today was yet another amazing trade off a long term volume profile level for over 50 points on the CME_MINI:ES1! S&P500 E-mini futures.
I want to document these trades as teachable moments because I think Volume Profile is an absolutely amazing tool that should be in ever trader's toolbox!
RSI hit oversold last night, expecting a rebound next week.
Decided to take a small long position with both calls and stocks, don;t really trust this market, lol.
CME: E-Mini S&P 500 Options ( CME_MINI:ES1! )
On March 24th, I published a trade idea, “Buckle Your Seatbelt for a Market Correction”, where I suggested that the US stock market was due for a major correction. Buying a Put contract on CME E-Mini S&P 500 Futures would be a trade to express this market view.
How is this trade panning out?
• On March 24th, the...
Today I took 3 losses. It was a really bad trading day. I didn't really follow my plan on the day and took 2 unnecessary losses. The one loss of the 3 I can live with but, I have to do better. There wasn't much give from the market today.
WTF was that? 15 minute pump, 15 minute dump. Talk about a bull trap.
I don't recommend going long until after Israel bombs Iran, that should cause the daily to go oversold. Look to play the bounce a day or two after it happens.
Note: 15 min chart, ignore the indicators, they just show up because of my template
Forgive me for using MES, but it’s easier because I don’t have to clear any existing markup. I’ve been watching this H&S pattern form for a while now and looks very clean on the 8 hour chart here. The measured move for the breakdown takes us to 5000. I expect that we retest the neckline and clean up the imbalances (FVGs) in the process before we ultimately get...
Well, I posted last night that I wasn't gonna trade. Expecting a bounce tomorrow, but probably too small to make it wort teh risk. If a market can melt up, it can melt down as well.
My advice is to just stay cash and take a break.
I don't like the fact that the market didn't bounce with MFI oversold on my 3 hr chart, so at this point, I'm inclined to wait until the daily indicators go oversold before buying the dip.
Why give away your profits for the year? Makes more sense to be cautious. Gonna sit back and watch Iran and Israel do their thing.
All 3 indicators are oversold, but quite frankly I'm not very bullish. I'd rather short the pumps at this point. Probably not trading tomorrow.
My best guess is that Israel will attack on April 26th, because it's my birthday, lol.
ES hit the bottom trendline, but like I said last week, I'm not going long until both RSI and MFI hit oversold. Quit frankly I'm scared to hold any long position overnight, so probably just gonna day trade tomorrow if it does go oversold.
I didn't post this morning because I wasn't quite sure what the market was gonna do, MFI hit oversold premarket, but the...
We might be in bearish Elliot waves here on ES / SPX.
If we are, there's a good chance we are at a low point now and due to enter into an ABC correction.
A two leg spike with a bear trap (But no new low) in the middle.
Sets up a possible high RR short on the C point.
Most of the previous short forecast has hit now.
By examining the ES1! 4-hour chart (S&P), we can figure out that, the market structure is bearish, so we looking for a sell position.
In that case, the price had a bearish reaction to all of the bearish Pd Array, so we can expect a bearish reaction on the balance price range (BPR).
In my perspective, sell-side liquidity is a draw on liquidity. Until this...
The S&P 500 is officially bearish as of Fridays close according to my intuition and strategy. I will be watching closely this week - targeting shorts around 5240. I expect to see a test the 5060-5000 level.
A daily close above 5240 would be bullish and invalidates this idea.
In the mid-term, I'm targeting key levels of interest to buy once this dip finds legs.
