Long ESLong ES, explanation in video!
Fib Exhausted
harami pattern possible...
market open volume...
oh and that point held Tuesday
ES1! trade ideas
S&P 500 E-mini Futures VWAP Breakout Strategy Sharing a solid intraday idea for you all – something I’ve been running on the S&P 500 E-mini Futures (30-min chart) lately, and it’s been delivering clean setups.
VWAP Breakout Play
I’m focusing on simple VWAP-based breakouts. Here’s the breakdown:
The setup:
• Wait for price to break above or below the VWAP with strong momentum (big candles + solid volume).
• I always confirm with a momentum indicator like MACD or RSI to filter out the noise.
Entries:
• Breakout Long: When price pushes above VWAP + momentum aligns.
• Breakout Short: When price dumps below VWAP + momentum confirmation.
Exits & Stops:
• Scale out at session highs/lows or key pivots.
• Stop-loss goes just beyond VWAP to keep the risk tight.
• If momentum fades, I’m out.
Why I like it:
VWAP attracts institutional flow, and combining it with momentum gives this strategy a solid edge, especially around U.S. session opens when volatility kicks in.
Give it a try and tweak it to your liking!
the S hit the Flosing thi trendline is a problem or im not captain obvious
where bottom? well.
no one knows the future some people me included though trump would boom the market
some people thought
people think
i think we need to stop thinking and see whats infront of us.
fear gives us a lack of buyers (volume)
uncerteinty provides sellers (price drops)
macro economics provide both of these.
and rate cuts arent happening but im still balling.
i wont say my projections in case im right i dont want market makers to change their plans but i will be nice and post my chart.
lines are levels and sweep levels
volume profile is volume profile
rectangles are gaps
rsi is rsi
fibbos are fibbos
declining volume is declining volume
Which place is attractive to buy??
AMP Futures - Instant order placementIn this idea we will go over how the instant order placement feature works in Tradingview.
Daily Trade Recap: Precision Entries and Exits EOD accountability report: +$828.75
Sleep: :check: Mood: 💯
Started the day very bearish because of the 195m sell signal but as once I saw the W pattern and Doji --> BFC, I decided to step back and watch.
C+ & B+ set up trades today
10:59 AM VXAlgo NQ 10M Sell Signal, (multiple confluence as well, Bia's resistance lvl, 10M sell signal, +trendline resistance)
12:15 PM breaking under 1min MOB & rejection.
1:09 PM VXAlgo ES 10M Buy signal, waited and brought at 5min MOB to 5720
Overview on S&P / 6C / 6E / Gold / SilverJust ran down a major overview on where I'm at in responding to a few messages. I left my last scenario mid December where I stated the S&P was overheated and was likely to come down, even if I didn't have a strong enough signal to go for a longer short on the market.
As I had said then, I was mostly interested in the 6E. I made a large chunk off buying the dip on the 6E and cashing out on trends, to include the launch off it recently had. I'm now done with the 6E for the moment.
My current focus is on 6C. The algorithm and math have taken a turn that the 6C is ready to rebound. I entered into it at just under .69, I did have to roll over into the newer contract, but even with the last couple down days, the math still supports a rebound. I almost cashed out today when it had a rough start and fell at .5%, but held through and we have mostly recovered for the day, leaving us with a fairly bearish candle pattern to support the ongoing uptrends pulling is higher.
When it comes to gold, we have multiple trend violations against the 1hr, 2hr, 3hr, 4hr, and 6hr of lower highs. I expect a downswing to correct these, as they are long overdue for some time now before we move higher. I do believe that Gold is destined for higher, just not yet. I haven't gotten any longer-term signals for gold, so I've mostly been shorting in swing trades to net just a couple thousand on this issue.
I am getting a signal on Silver that it is ready to launch. It is not a flawless signal to show it is ready to meet new highs, so I may watch it tomorrow, but ultimately, I may feel more comfortable jumping into silver over gold for a rebound instead of quick shorts. Also, silver has less margin, so it ties up less of my account.
That is where I sit, hope your trades go well, and remember your risk management.
S&P 500 Recovery: First Price Target Reached What’s Next?S&P 500 Update – Downside Target Hit
The first P&F count has been reached, raising the question of whether this is a true reversal. Market patterns often show a low forming at quarter-end followed by a retest in the new quarter.
Currently, the market is in recovery mode off the bottom. The key questions remain: Is this recovery sustainable, and where might it lead? Is this truly a reversal?
Having achieved the downside objectives, the market is now starting to build cause. The initial lift off the low is notable, but its timing at the end of the first quarter requires caution. There could still be a need for additional testing.
A common pattern in markets is the formation of two lows – one at the end of the old quarter and another in the new quarter – creating what appears as a low and a test.
If a significant market turn is developing with a potential uptrend in the second and third quarters, there will be ample time to position accordingly. The prudent approach now is to create a shopping list of potential investments and look for good ideas and market leadership.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice.
ID: 2025 - 0062.28.2025
Trade #6 of 2025 executed. So simple, yet far from easy...
Trade entry at 168 DTE (days to expiration).
Trade construct is a PDS (put debit spread) at Delta 15 combined with a PCS (put credit spread) at Delta 15. Overlapping short strikes give it the "unbalanced" butterfly nomenclature.
Sizing and strike selection is designed to keep the risk/reward "AT EXPIRATION" to a 1:1 risk profile. This lets charm work it's magic (second order greek), while exploiting the fact that this is a non-directional bias. The process is a disciplined and systematic approach letting time decay evaporate the extrinsic time value from the short options until target profit is achieved.
IF target profit is not captured after 60 DIT (days in trade), then target is reduced by 50% for the next 30 days.
Happy Trading!
-kevin
Gamma Exposure Analysis SPY & VXX SPY Resistance at 570. The 570 level in SPY likely corresponds to a high gamma concentration for 0DTE (zero days to expiration) options. At this strike, market makers short gamma (i.e., net sellers of options) at this level would dynamically delta-hedge by selling SPY as the price approaches 570, creating selling pressure and resistance. Next resistance level 575.
For VXX , the 48 level likely represents a put-dominated gamma zone: If market makers are net long puts, they would buy VXX as prices decline toward 48 to hedge against further downside, creating support. Next support level 46.50
ES Premarket UpdateWell, I did mention the small open gap yesterday afternoon, lol.
Looks like Europe sold off and took the US futures with them, MFI is now OVERBOUGHT meaning more downside despite the open gap above. The market is breaking a lot of my usual rules, the only time the market left an open futures gap for an extended time was the initial COVID gap which stayed open for a year.
Looks like Trump is the new COVID, not playing the gap fill anymore, just playing 3 hr indicators now. Also, Powell did not say anything significant yesterday.
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 03/18/2025MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 03/18/2025
📈5740. 5760
📉5680. 5660
Like and share for more daily ES levels 🤓📈📉🎯💰
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
ES UpdateWell, apparently you can't just rely on daily indicators and an open gap. All I did was lose money on premium burn with the calls I bought last week, but I added next week's XLF calls when the market opened and XLF went red for some stupid reason.
Wound up dumping everything near the daily peak when I regained lost profits, so at least I'm even now, lol. What I realized is that you gotta pay attention to the 3 hr indicators even at the bottom. You can see how it sold off Monday afternoon/night because RSI and MFI hit overbought, and we got the Powell pump because MFI hit oversold premarket today,
I don't have time to pay attention to the market all day because I have a job now, lol, so you guys will have to track MFI and RSI on your own. 3 hr chart, standard settings for RSI and MFI and make sure your time zone aligns with US east coast (NY), or else the 3 hr charts will look different.
There's also a small gap up aftermarket today that also needs to be filled. Probably more whipsaw, lol. At this point, I'm only trading if I see indicators go oversold or overbought. WIll post plots pre-market if I have time. Good luck.
A degree of comfortThe Fed laid out its forecasting for decreases in Fed funds rate through 2027. I think this brings a certain degree of comfort to the market that there is a roadmap to lower interest rates. The result was a positive movement in the S&P 500 daily chart. The expectation is for follow-through to the upside on Thursday but not a large move.
SP500 (E-mini Futures) - Decision TimeBigger Picture SP500 Futures Update - Decision Time
- Powell (FED) ruled out a recession in todays FOMC Press Conference (Bullish)
- Powell announced drastically slow down QT beginning next month (Extremely bullish for risk assets)
- The Asian and European stock market indices are still showing strength forming new ATHs week by week.
zone trading using fib zones The premise of the zones is as follows :
the zones , which are the orange boxes, present a target for price expansion. Once price CLOSES outside of any zone, not just the wick but the candle, there is a 70% chance it will travel that path to the next zone, before closing out from the zone which it came from. There is a caveat, for the orange line on the chart, between two of the zones, there is a 70% chance price will reach the orange line, not follow through to the end, though it may , as per my backtesting its not as certain as simply assuming it will touch the orange line.
Furthermore, If price reaches the end of one zone, and RSI + MFI are both overbought or oversold, this is a good indicator price may reverse to the zone start.
A good time to take profit for me is if price reaches the end of a zone, or if the MFI and RSI are overbought or sold against my position, I usually exit as that is a deccent signal for price reversal.
The zones should be used as a DIRECTIONAL BIAS , meaning that if the zones are for the hourly chart, you should be looking to enter on a lower timeframe, using your own trading strategy, this simply confirms you entry and tells you which trades might be good to avoid.
It can be used as a standalone strategy but I prefer to use it's bias for a few quick trades on a lower timeframe rather than wait the entire zone or risk a spike out, where price might enter the stop loss area, but not close on that end of the zone, and go the way it was predicted, this as you can guess, is a valid trade idea for a high RR trade reversal!
Dont just take my word for it..... look at the proof ......
Recap: Weekly Trade Plan March 10th, 2025CME_MINI:ES1!
In this TradingView blog, we will recap our trade plan posted on March 10th, 2025.
Please note that this is a recap, and since then, we have also published our updated price map and weekly plan for the current week. Today is also the Federal Reserve's decision day.
Here is our updated price map from the weekly plan published on March 10th, 2025:
Our updated price map for ES Futures
Key Levels:
• Important Level to reclaim if no correction: 5795.25 - 5800
• Key LVN: 5738 - 5696
• Mid 2024 range: 5574.50
• Key Support: 5567.25 - 5528.75
• 2024-YTD mCVAL: 5449.25
• 2022 CVAH: 5280.25
It is important to note that when we provide our thoughts and reasoning for the levels we map in our recap, we have the benefit of hindsight. Likewise, when we publish our weekly trading plan and share our thoughts at the start of the week, we are anticipating potential market movements on the hard right edge. This is where randomness and uncertainty are key points.
If we were to rank our process chronologically, this is how we note the importance of each component that makes up our plan.
1. Big Picture
2. Key Levels/Price Map
3. Scenarios
Our big picture is based on how we view the global macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape.
Key levels are mapped utilizing our methodology considering market auction theory and volume profiling. Note how our key level, 'Mid-range 2024', on higher time frame provided support.
At times you may see two scenarios, at other times three. Scenarios are just an anticipation which a trader should adjust should any new information come to light. Although you may note that our scenarios play out mostly from reviewing our blogs. Our aim is to help you create a process for yourself. Note how we anticipated near-mirroring price action for the week, though our reasoning was influenced by higher inflation data. However, the inflation reading came in lower than expected.
Fast forward to today, all eyes are now on the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, SEP, and the FOMC press conference scheduled for later today.
ES, Mar 19, 2025With today's FOMC Federal Funds announcement, I expect CME_MINI:ES1! to sweep liquidity below the current range, tapping into the daily liquidity level and daily average sweep zone before reversing higher. From there, I anticipate a push through the 4H Imbalance (IFVG) and continuation toward the daily average expansion area, which aligns with key daily buy-side liquidity.
This move would follow a classic liquidity grab and expansion pattern, with price reclaiming key levels and driving higher as liquidity unlocks. If buyers step in as expected, ES should have the momentum to reach and potentially exceed the daily expansion target. Note weekly FVG above daily expansion level.
However, if ES fails to displace above the 4H IFVG, it would signal a lack of strength to sustain a move higher. In that case, a rejection at this level could trigger a shift in momentum, increasing the likelihood of further downside as liquidity is redistributed lower. If that happens, I will be targeting the daily average expansion level at $5,600.
