Today was yet another amazing trade off a long term volume profile level for over 50 points on the CME_MINI:ES1! S&P500 E-mini futures. I want to document these trades as teachable moments because I think Volume Profile is an absolutely amazing tool that should be in ever trader's toolbox!
After the S&P 500 market absorbed the news about the retaliatory attack from Israel to Iran with a large moved to the downside buyers into the market. The question is is that buying sellers buying to take profits or has it gotten cheap enough that buyers are entering the market. Pay attention to Sunday nights opening and Asia's response to get guidance for Monday....
Trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract) 30m - 5111 Uptrend (4/17/2024) Lower High 1Hr - 5220 Downtrend (4/12/2024) Lower Low 2Hr - 5203 Downtrend (4/12/2024) Lower Low 3Hr - 5197 Downtrend (4/4/2024) Lower Low 4Hr - 5197 Downtrend (4/4/2024) Lower Low 6Hr - 5250 Downtrend (4/2/2024) Higher Low 12Hr - 5204 Downtrend (4/4/2024) Higher...
All signs point to a pullback in the market. I think JPM/AMD and some other big names might even be our leading indicator. The only real pullback target I could come up with is a 50% retracement which is fairly common in the market and within trends themselves.
Will sellers maintain control in the S&P 500 going into the weekend? Buyers did come into the market on Thursday but failed to hold and sellers pushed the market lower. Another possibility is sellers taking profits on Friday as we go into the weekend.
Sellers named in control in the S&P 500 on Wednesday. We are approaching levels that buyers have entered the market in the past. So, be cautious on the short side.
The price action that we saw in the S&P 500 on Tuesday has the potential for a change in market direction. The key on Wednesday would be for the market to trade above Tuesday's high and give a stronger close above that high.
My plan today for SPX levels; My main level is 5011. Bull Plan If we open above 5011 and stay above 5011 we can test 5027 with 5043 and 5053. Bear Plan If we open below 5011 and stay below 5011 we can test 5000 with 4994 with 4988 (this is my preferred move at opening, then adjust). Stay Frosty!
So again, I cashed out my trade just above 5000 as we fell last night following the Israel drone strike against Iran. Most of that dip appears to have resolved itself, at least for the moment, but those geopolitical issues will likely be crucial to the potential of a market fall in the coming days. I go into it in the video, but major Earnings are next week, and...
This is nothing new TBH. Strong work on the weekends pays off during the week. Today we had another downward trend day that saw sellers become buyers and then back to sellers again trapping bulls. This should add conviction for an overnight leg down. Several pullbacks appeared that would've paid off today as well.
The S&P 500 is in the neutral zone trade with a bullish bias. The expectation for Tuesday is for today range trading inside of Monday's range with a higher close.
Based on the fundamentals that we saw coming out on Friday, the market response in the S&P 500 is an anxiety attack based on a nervous outlook for the market. I do not look for a dramatic move lower on Monday without new fundamental information to create an increase in anxiety.
After the drop in the S&P 500 on Monday, and inside day would be expected unless we get surprise fundamentals for continued weakness in this market on Tuesday.
I think video, I covered an awesome pullback day. Where we could've entered, what the week looked like to me and what I expect next week without doing my weekend analysis.
Going over the price action for Monday 4-22 looking for clues to how we could have traded better and what the market was trying to tell us.
So many great setups today as I think sellers from last week started buying back into the market. I took a couple of trades today both winners but, there was definitely some money left on the table today. All in all a super technical day.
Going over the morning sEssion looking back for clues to what the market was telling us. dont trade someone else's system. critical that we follow our own plan.
Going over the price action from Sunday night looking for clues as to what the market is telling us.