I thought a possible bearish retracement for this quarter could be possible but bonds seems to be bullish. Bearish price action looks like runs on stops. Will continue to watch. As of now, I switch to neutral. My longer term mmbm idea seems to be playing out a lot more aggressively than I expected.
Bonds is continuously breaking daily lows. Would like to see a body close market structure shift lower for a clear sign of bearish shift.
Long on Donchian 4 week break out rules for a major change in trend. Lets see where this gets us.
The expected turnaround did not happened, and the 61.8 Fibo is now a resistance.
This is reference chart for my recent trade idea to explain why I am going long T-Notes Futures.
1 tick = 0.0078125 Tick Value = $7.8125 What I call 1 point is 4 ticks or 0.03125 ($31.25) Bought at 112'09'2 Stop 112'07'0
After a very long journey downwards, a breathing is overdue for LTIRs.
Five year notes show clear divergence against momentum indicators, bottom might be in place.
Stock market is tanking under the weight of higher interest rates. Will there be a reversal in rates? Flight to safety anyone?
ZF corrected into the 0.62 retracement so it might be worth a try.
It is probably not there yet, but it should be close, so be on look out.
Similar pattern (seee previous post) can be found in five year note, which would suggest that FED tightening is fully priced and that market is starting to anticipate the recession, and bear market in stocks.
Evolution of bonds when interest rate expectations augment, by duration
This detail of price development to the hourly chart is based on a previously published global analysis.
US 2-Year Treasury Note on Historical chart with parallel channel
After an impulse to the downside, 5year notes went sideways for several moths, corrected 50%, and presumably made an initial small impulsive wave lately to begin the second leg down. Will it be a third or a C wave is yet to be established. Should stay beneath the magenta MA though.
Disclaimer The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. At the time publishing, I have a position in 5-Year T-Note Futures (ZF1!) . ...