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ZC1! trade ideas

The CPI Fantasy And Commodity PricesRodney Dangerfield was one of my all-time favorite comedians. He was a master at the one-liner, and while his catchphrase was “I don’t get no respect,” he got plenty. Rodney passed in 2004, but his legacy lives on in films. His role as Thornton Melon in the 1986 comedy classic Back to School continues to have a cult following. As he sat in an economics class, the professor created a theoretical company that sold widgets, the favorite product of academics. The lesson included funding the company and developing a marketing strategy for the widgets. Rodney’s character, already a wealthy businessman, attempted to point out the realities of starting a business, but the professor objected. Rodney then glibly asked the economist if his factory was in “fantasy land.” While the film was a fictional comedy, there is a fine line between fiction and nonfiction. The US Federal Reserve continues to call rising inflationary pressures “transitory.” Long ago, the economists massaged the consumer price data to extract a core that excludes food and energy prices called “core CPI.” Thornton Melon would call the core data “fantasy land” as food and energy are the critical factors that take a bite out of consumers’ budgets. Another significant increase in the inflation barometer Core CPI is fantasy land Look at the evidence- It costs more to power our lives and fuel our bodies Transitory in Fed Speak and the literal definition is not the same The trend is always your friend- Economists are behind the curve Another significant increase in the inflation barometer In June and July, the previous month’s consumer price index data was off the charts, indicating rising inflation. This month, the July CPI reading rose 5.4%, another sky-high level. While the number was in line with the market’s expectations, core CPI, excluding food and energy, was up 0.3% compared to the forecast level at 0.4%. The market interpreted the core number as less inflationary as it was below the expected reading. Core CPI is fantasy land Economists are social scientists, making their projections and interpretations highly subjective. They argue that core CPI better reflects inflationary pressures because food and energy prices can be highly volatile. Excluding them from the inflation barometer smooths the data. In statistics, the science of data, hedonic regression is the application of regression analysis to estimate the impact of various factors on the price of demand for a good. Hedonics is commonly used in real estate pricing as a quality adjustment for price indices. When it comes to inflation, excluding food and energy from the CPI is similar. The problem with core CPI is that food and energy make up a significant part of budgets. Rising prices for the products that fuel our lives and provide nutrition for our bodies is taking an ever-increasing bite out of paychecks is a reality, while eliminating them distorts the actual cost of living for the majority of people. Economists massage data. The US Federal Reserve relies on statistics in its monetary policy decision-making process. Thornton Melon would say that core CPI only exists in “fantasy land.” Look at the evidence- It costs more to power our lives and fuel our bodies Anyone that fills their car with gasoline, heats or cools their homes, or eats, will tell you that prices are a lot higher in August 2021 than they were in August 2020. Futures prices are real-time objective data as they reflect where buyers and sellers meet in a transparent environment. The evidence pointing to the reality of rising inflation from the August 2020 high to the August 13, 2021 closing level on the nearby futures contracts is clear: Nearby NYMEX crude oil prices increased from $43.78 to $68.44 per barrel, an increase of 56.3%. Gasoline moved from $1.4395 to $2.2626 per gallon or 57.2%. Heating oil and distillate prices rose from $1.3054 to $2.0779 per gallon, a 59.2% rise. Natural gas appreciated from $2.743 to $3.861 per MMBtu or 40.8%. Corn rose from $3.53 to $5.6825 per bushel or 61.0%. Soybeans rallied from $9.67 to $13.73 per bushel or 42.0%. CBOT wheat increased from $5.5175 to $7.6225 per bushel or 38.2%. Coffee rose from $1.3080 to $1.8275 per pound or 39.7%. Sugar moved from 13.28 cents to 19.95 cents per pound or 50.2%. Live cattle appreciated from $1.08225 to $1.28125 per pound or 18.4%. Lean hogs are up from 56.70 cents to 86.525 per pound or 52.6% over the period. The substantial increases in food and energy commodities paint a very inflationary picture. Moreover, the price rises reflect wholesale levels. Retail prices have risen far more over the past year. Yesterday, I paid over $4.20 per gallon for gasoline in Las Vegas, double the price last year. Food and energy prices are the tip of an inflationary iceberg. Education, health care, and housing costs are soaring. All raw material prices have moved appreciably higher. Transitory in Fed Speak and the literal definition is not the same In reality, prices are soaring in the Fed’s “fantasy land,” the core CPI data does not look all that bad as they only rose 0.3% in August. However, our food and energy bills went up a hell of a lot more last month. Over the past months, the Fed blamed rising inflationary pressures on lumber, new and used car prices, and other “transitory” factors created by bottlenecks in supply chains and other pandemic-related factors. The academic ivory tower where the economists sit is far above ground zero, where consumers shop each day. The definition of “transitory” is not permanent. Adjectives are temporary, transient, brief, short, short-lived, fleeting, and passing. “Transitory,” in a literal sense, requires an end date. So far, the Fed has not provided that data to the market. When asked about the period the central bank measures its 2% average inflation target, Chairman Powell replied it is “discretionary” or available for use at the user’s discretion. Transitory and discretionary is Fed-speak for leave it to us. They are non-answers to critical questions about the Fed’s interpretation and policy stance. Transitory reflects the central bank’s hopes and wishes, while discretionary tells us they will figure it all out someday. The trend is always your friend- Economists are behind the curve The bottom line is that the most objective measures of inflation are the wholesale futures prices and the retail costs of living. Food and energy prices are only a microcosm of rising prices across all asset classes. Money’s purchasing power is eroding because of the tidal wave of central bank liquidity and tsunami of government stimulus. Even if the Fed bites the bullet and addresses rising inflation, the government continues to spend without abandon. A $3.5 trillion budget initiative before the US Congress with an infrastructure rebuilding package only increases the debt level. The Fed is living in “fantasy land” as inflation continues to rise. In August 2020, gold made a new record high. In May 2021, lumber, copper, and palladium prices rose to all-time peaks. Grains and oilseeds rose to eight-year highs in 2021. In July, coffee futures rose to their highest price since 2014. Bull markets in the volatile commodities sector rarely move in a straight line. The ascent of prices has been nothing short of a bull market relay race, with one commodity handing the baton to the next. The most recent recipient was the sugar market, which rose to over 20 cents per pound last week, the highest price since 2017. Even if we use statistical methods to smooth the bullish price action, the underlying trends reveal that the Federal Reserve’s approach to monetary policy is far behind the inflationary curve. Inflation can be a challenging beast to tame. As it rises, the central bank’s refusal to acknowledge and address the economic condition will reward it with the lack of respect it deserves. We live in a stark reality created by policies that continue to erode money’s value. Rodney Dangerfield was a comedian. There is a fine line between comedy and tragedy. If the approach to monetary policy that hides behind massaged data were not so tragic, it would be funny. 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by Andy_Hecht
CORNNNNNNNNNNNNStagflation Oil Harvest USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board anticipates 2021/22 corn, soybean, and wheat harvested area to total nearly 1.4 billion acres. In the past two years, an additional 57 million acres of corn, soybeans, and wheat across the world have come into production – a 4.4% increase since 2019. And those acres need supplemental nutrients to produce profitable yields. Current price levels are encouraging for fertilizer production expansion. But rising natural gas costs as energy supplies run dry mean that the global fertilizer production increase could be thwarted by looming energy shortages in Russia, China and the European Union. NOAA is currently forecasting a warmer than normal winter across much of the Heartland. Temperatures in the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains are likely to be cooler than usual. If an unexpected polar vortex hits late in the winter and energy reserves in the Gulf are not adequate, domestic fertilizer production could face more delays. It will likely be another tight year of global fertilizer supplies as more world players such as India, Brazil, China and Russia compete with the U.S. for available fertilizer supplies. While spring 2022 shortage fears are still largely speculative, farmers are wise to plan for worst-case scenarios regarding 2022 fertilizer applications. It marks a warranted shift in managerial focus from price risk to operational risk. As we have prominently seen over the past three growing cycles, crop quality and yield – thus revenues – are negatively impacted when farmers halt operations for any reason. And with a rapid rise in weather volatility, waiting on pesticide and fertilizer supplies next spring increases the risk for lower yields next fall.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by UnknownUnicorn29753125
CORN ACCUMULATION AFTER DISTRIBUTION!Hello my beauties. I think the price of Corn is on its way to complete an accumulation phase. If the price breaches above the red trading range and successfully retests, I will enter a long position before the markup. If you find this idea to be helpful like, follow, and drop a comment below if you'd want me to analyse a different pair. Consider supporting me if you think I am providing you with value. Peace. Luca, TrickleDownFX
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by TrickleDownFX
BEARISH ON US CORNBearish clues: - General downtrend since August 2021 - Ascending wedge , breakdown with a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern - Bearish Divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) + below the neutrality zone (RSI < 50) - Pullback done on a resistance zone around $5.40/bushel - Breakdown of the 150 Exponential Moving Average Fundamental news: - US Corn production seems to be good , as well as the European and France productions - WASDE USDA Report is expected on October 12, 2021 Objective: The theoretical objective of the ascending wedge is around $5.00/bushel . US Corn could goes down to the level of $5.23/bushel first (resistance and 50% Fibonacci retracement level) and then down to the $5.12/bushel . Then, the last objective is $5.00/bushel (ascending triangle's theoretical objective and psychological price level) MAYBE WAIT THE WASDE USDA REPORT RELEASE TOMORROW (OCTOBER 12, 2021) Feel free to share, comment and give your opinion if it is constructive ;) DISCLAIMER: This is not investment advice
CBOT:ZCZ2021Short
by ViclreTrade
Continuous CornA few things for direction on Corn after report. Some bias for more upside longer term, but the market has been saying not so fast lately. US Dollar: Usually trends lower into major China export programs (more so for beans than corn as China usually does not buy much corn) Trends higher after export program concludes. Some resistance ahead. A move lower would help grain exports…. COT: Commercial Net is tipping lower. Natural selling by farmer. (+) Commercial Shorts could be reversing to add to positions, typically places a low. (+) Commercial Longs have not been adding. Until they start adding I will remain neutral. (+/-) Funds are adding to longs. (+) **These indicators lag behind change in trends. But if we do trend after the report, It should help confirm a bigger picture scenario either way….
CBOT:ZC1!
by mtb1980
December21 CornDecember 21 Corn - Weekly: A very wide range of price action that has so far respected the downtrend line since the early May high. There is an abundance of volume by price in the 5.40-5.60 range. The 5.27 low will be key support on a daily close. Support below at 5.20 and 4.98. Further Risk at 4.77- 4.66 and 4.47. Bulls would like to see a weekly close above the blue Tenkan line at 5.46. Targets above remain at 5.57 with a primary focus in the 5.73 to 5.94 area.
CBOT:ZCZ2021
by mtb1980
Continuous CornCorn – Weekly Cont: The 5.47 area had the most volume by price since the uptrend began. Did the recent bump give the Funds an opportunity to bail on their longs or does it prove to be an area of accumulation for funds and end users??? Weekly support at 5.21 needs to hold for the weak longs. Further key support at 4.98. Risk is 4.66-4.37. So far the cloud is acting as good support. Any further strength needs to see a weekly close above the 5.44-5.47 resistance. Initial target above 5.47 is at 5.88 and then 6.16. Current “Market Structure” is very sensitive. Downside Risk is 4.37, Upside Risk is any posted number up to 8.81
CBOT:ZC1!
by mtb1980
December 21 CornDecember 21 Corn - Weekly: A very wide range of price action that has so far respected the downtrend line since the early May high. There is an abundance of volume by price in the 5.40-5.60 range. The weekly chart shows the red Kijun line (5.44) and blue Tenkan line pinching together. Weekly closes below 5.44 is a concern for the bulls. A Weekly close above 5.17 will be supportive (lowest weekly close posted wk of 7/6). Support targets below in red. Targets above in blue.
CBOT:ZCZ2021
by mtb1980
Continuous Corn MixedCorn – Weekly Cont: **Technicals showing mixed signals** Will Friday’s bump hold? Dec21 leading the continuous chart. The lagging indicator turned negative but can turn neutral/positive with a confirmed bounce. The blue Tenkan cross below the red Kijun is bearish. Need a weekly close above the blue TenKan line. The slight uptrend channel was broken, could be labeled as a bear flag and could still target price action lower to 4.66-4.37 area The green cloud offers up trending support, let’s see if Friday’s 4.97 holds. There is a big gap in volume by price between 4.25 to 5.20 area….Lots of volume at 5.47 will continue to act as a magnet. Above will target 5.89 as a key hurdle to get over…
CBOT:ZC1!
by mtb1980
Short-trend in CORNIt seems like a bearish flag pattern, which is building up in the Corn futures. So this could result in another short-term bearish impulse. According to the seasonality charts we have at the end of Sep/Oct (depends on which charts you take into consideration) a seasonal low. According to the CME, it's not expected before Nov/Dec (New Crop months). My personal long-term view on the agriculture commodities is of course very bullish - but we can go still one level lower over the next months ...
CBOT:ZC1!
by p4917