Slow move up, very slow, more slow than I would like and desire. But UP, at the end. Some might call it "acumulation" or any fashion word to describe what market does for unkownn reasons, when it moves slowly.
So here are the rhythms of this FOUR year corrective move. And now? walk or Burst (again), fly or Die (once more).
I chose the first.Is my choice. In fact I...
Dollar UP.
gold at a very TOP
And miner doing very bad, after all, cant be a bullish continuation.
That means for me a RESET, to a weekly low or even a MONTHLY bottom.
If after Fed meeting, gold continues crahing (and it could) if dollar seeks new HIGH, miners would fall more...
I am full short at this moment.
There is a gap at 33 that should be filled.
And under...
This is something I look at in terms of health (outlook) for PM mining stocks (see GDX and GDXJ etfs)
Mining stocks have been battered in recent times but just when everyone gives up on them is probably a decent contrarian time to start looking for higher prices
the ratio of small miners/big miners looks like it is about to break out a little higher which...
Junior gold miners, as shown with the VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF, are finally following the gold price action and started its own strong upward trend by breaking the (green) resistance, with the subsequent pullback confirming it as new support and starting to accelerate upwards (“thrust“).
While gold continues to trade at record highs, gold exploration and mining stocks have finally started to appreciate as well, albeit somewhat slower than many have expected. However, the underperformance of gold stocks relative to a rising gold price is a phenomenon which is not uncommon, in particular in the beginning (and also in the final phases) of a bull market.
I am very confident if this move down occurs the market will finally bottom and we will see a minimum +250% return on this ETF.
I'm treating this more as an investment than a trade.
If this occurs it could also mean a stock market crash is not too far away - historically it usually occurs within 12 months once Gold finds the final bottom of the bear market.
Lot's of room to fall when weekly EMA30 is lost (purple). That will mean momentum has shifted, and "silver" stocks are out-performing gold stocks. The duration of the trend shift is up for debate. Head and shoulders?
With gold up near 2000 once again and seeing bullish sentiment building it behooves us to watch the technicals and there's nothing bullish about miners. Some are saying inverse head and shoulders but you'd be betting on a major breakout in gold witch seems unlikely with all but WW3 priced in. Major gap on majors and minors below is the target by year end.
In the current blue wave (c) of the GDXJ, the bulls pulled out their defibrillators and breathed some life back into the market. With a 5.5% gain, the wave extension continued, which should carry on above the next resistance at $43.89 and then enter the magenta Target Zone ($57.36 - $65.95). In this price range, both the top of the blue wave (c) and that of the...
... for a 31.42 debit.
Comments: Going covered call (neutral to bullish assumption) on this weakness with a 30 delta short call in the November 17th expiry.
Max Profit: 3.58 ($358)
Break Even: 31.42/share
ROC %-age at Max As a Function of Buying Power Effect: 11.39%
ROC %-age at 50% Max: 5.70%
US Bonds are currently dumping once more as GDXJ and Gold Bearishly Diverges at resistance after printing a 3-Line Strike. If this goes as I would expect, then we will see GDXJ come down to recover the entire range.
Given USD strength and the sustained pressure of ever-increasing US interest rates, gold has been taking it on the chin. However, we’re getting into buy levels/demand where it may be poised for a near-term recovery. Keep tabs on gold (spot, futures, GLD), but if you see signs of accumulation/trend reversal (use small timeframe charts), consider climbing aboard....
I believe Gold is close to bottoming - we may see a short term move down on Gold due to dollar strength, however I believe the cyclical effects of Gold entering into a bull market will overpower the impact of Dollar strength weakening risk on assets.
The entry zone at 35.56 may be broken as it's possible a stronger move down in Gold will happen first. This could...
... for a .72/contract credit.
Comments: One of the higher IV underlyings in my options liquid ETF screener at 34.4%. Going a little more aggressive here, selling the 25 delta strike.
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max and/or (a) roll down and out for a credit if tested; or (b) take assignment of shares and sell call against.
The VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (ticker: GDXJ) has entered a certain minefield here. Our short-trade target zone has already been dealt with and the corresponding high of the turquoise wave (ii) was placed accordingly within said zone. We are now anticipating further impulsive sell-action in accordance with the general bearish trend. If the bulls want to start...
