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Bond Yield Recession Indicator

yzlh6789 Updated   
This model uses the difference between 10-year and 3-month Treasury rates to calculate the probability of a recession in the United States twelve months ahead.
By a simple gimpse, it has been correct for the last two recessions of 2000 and 2008.

www.newyorkfed.org/r...l_markets/ycfaq.html
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M
Release Notes:
v2

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