The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) is pulling-back towards the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and bottom of the Rising Wedge. The pattern is getting too tight and the squeeze will inevitably result in a break-out and new trend/ pattern.
If the Rising Wedge breaks downwards, it will mean the end of the yield's +3.5 year bullish run and will have a high...
If you believe the all important 10Y yield telegraphs the markets, then pay attention to this chart...I am fairly certain this path will materialize...mid to late 2024 we should see a signifant drop in yields...which should pump markets...and push inflation down. This of course is timed perfectly for the 2024 U.S. presidential elections...coincidence? LOL!
Fed Chair Powell is speaking, but the market is not listening. Powell was speaking on Friday at Spelman College in Atlanta, noting once again that the current policy might not be restrictive enough, meaning that further rate hikes are possible in case that inflation remains persistent. However, a strong economic output of 5.2% for Q3 and inflation figures which...
Regarding the ten-year rate, we must say, the first important point that can be seen is in the green box and then the green lines, the resistance formed is also indicated by the red box. We will be in these ranges for a long period.
It would surprise many.
So far House prices have been holding up with rates going parabolic
Strong economies can usually handle a few years of stable rates in around 5%
Supercycle's generally last 16-18 years
As we saw in the great Bull run of 1982 to 2000
A repeat of this cycle timeframe: would mean
#Bitcoin top 2025 (2009 inception)
#Stocks 2026 (march...
Complimenting the TLT forecast:
Bat pattern in the 10 year yields. Norms of this pattern is to be super strong into the end, have massive attention and almost everyone expecting the move to continue.
Bats often both top and break with news.
Over the last days I've been strongly suggesting to real life friends they dump risk assets and buy bonds.
The US10Y is approaching an oversold technical state on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 34.650, MACD = -0.086, ADX = 44.537) as selling was accelerated this week after failing to get close to the 1D MA50. The long term pattern is a Channel Up and the decline since Octobet 23rd is the new bearish leg.
The one prior hit the 0.5 Fibonacci level of the rally and then...
Yield Rates represent a percentage. How much would an investor get if they invested in a US Treasury Bond.
A stable economy needs three things, at least according to the FED.
- Low Inflation
- Low Unemployment
- Strong Economy
Yield Rates are the ultimate weapon of the FED. By manipulating rates they stabilize the economy accordingly. They stimulate when they...
Since March 2020, the 10-year U.S Treasury yields have been rising, reaching a high of 5.021% last month. According to Elliott Wave Analysis, this advance seems to have ended at that high and a decline is underway, with targets of 3.9% and 3.23%. Keep in mind that lower yields could translate to a lower U.S Dollar as well
The FOMC November meeting minutes were the ones that supported market expectations that the Fed is finished with further rate increases. The rates might stay higher for longer, but the market is currently anticipating that the first rate cut in this cycle might occur in May next year. Treasury yields reacted on the release of the Minutes, where yields were...
We have a busy week this week as we have lots of data on big economies that should provide insights on inflation and activity – namely the US consumer confidence, PCE price index, PMIs, European CPI, German consumer confidence and Chinese PMI.
The US 10Y yield has been correcting lower over the past few weeks but we suspect it has based just ahead of the key...
