Stellar (XLMUSD) hit and broke today above the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since the week of May 02 2022. That's more than 1 year of trading below a key long-term Resistance that is now broken. The 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) has supported this price action for the past 2 weeks.
The time XLM hit the 1W MA200 during the previous Cycle, it failed...
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For this particular analysis on STELLAR we are using the XLMUSDT symbol on the Phemex exchange.
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The idea is on the 1D time-frame where Stellar Lumen has been consolidating since its May 31 short-term High, which is still a Lower High within the Channel Down pattern that started in November 2021 and more importantly having failed to break above...
Stellar got rejected at the end of December on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and that stopped the rebound from developing into a full rally sequence. That is the Resistance to beat if XLM wants to see a new bullish phase. Practically the pattern from late June until now seems like a giant Accumulation Phase and both in price action and 1D RSI terms is similar...
There are two possible scenarios green and red paths.
0.6562 would become a support or resistance.
If it resist a cup and handle pattern would be possible otherwise a breakout and retest will occur with higher high.
The possibility of a resistance is more because of high funding rates.
Just an possible idea.
I am looking into Stellar on today's crypto study, which is giving me a strong sign that the bottom to this downtrend may be in.
I am comparing the current candle sequence with a the 2017 fractal, right before XLMUSD took off to a 5500% parabolic rise in a period of less than 100 days. A rise of that magnitude of course depends on a variety of factors so I am not...
