In this update we review the recent price action in the Wheat futures contract and identify the next high probability trading pattern and price objectives to target
Here I lay out my trade idea for Wheat. Given Global Macro events, technical patterns and indicators, I see a long here. 3:1 RR 1% Risked. Let's see where this goes!
Everything in the video I also talk a bit about market psychology and why it's problematic to think the "news" is the cause of price movement.
SPX is bullish over 3750, bonds I can't tell what is going on there but under 125 would be bad for bulls, Wheat, looks good still in channel, Gold also looks good although the dollar may rally again to 116, BTC could drop hard but it would be a buy for me. GOod luck
Some pre market commentary, SPX - expecting a bear trap after open, then higher. Wheat may be affected by the hurricane in Florida, Bonds hit an important fib extension, Gold looks promising if it can get over 1675 resistance, DXY also looks like it may pullback - BTC could still move to lower 18000 area before a move up (would align with one more low in equities)...
Fomc is at 2pm today. Many are expecting a rally, and that could be - but be careful of a pump and dump. Another option is it just dumps to 3700 quickly which for me would be a buy zome. Bonds may be close to a turn and Powell may signal something dovish to that market today, Wheat looks good and now we are expecting pullbacks to be bought, Gold also looks good...
OK so yesterday was not my best day. There are still some signs of a reversal possible but unless spy gets over 390 in the next day or two, all rallies will be suspect. USOIL looks like a correction is over and we should go higher, Wheat correction is normal for the first leg up, it could test 8.14-8.00. Gold spiked through support but it doesn't mean anything...
All in the video, expecting a pullback but how much is hard to say if it's a B wave. Logic tells me to feed the bears just enough before they take away the plate, but we'll have to see how CPI is reacted to tomorrow. Oil looks very good for a move above 100 still, Wheat could still be a Flat completing, but I'm not concerned about a pullback if it does. Gold,...
All in the video - SPX looks toppy around 4080, USOIL looks bullish for a move over 100 over the coming weeks, Wheat has two possibilities, but ultimately I think it's bullish either way. Gold one more low possible but GDX is leading upwards as of now. BTC nice but rsi is over stretched, needs a pullback.
Unexpected rally on Spy to 413 looks possible for next week. All the usual markets are covered. Wheat is still good but it's been a tough trade. Oil probably to 92 but it's possible one more low to 78-79 could happen first. Gold and metals I think continue the rally as DXY pulls back more. BTC same. Good luck!
I forgot bonds, will update if I need to- they still are sucking as of now. SP500 looks like it wants to rally, a hold over 3930 hourly chart would be a long. If we have one more down it will likely be the bottom for a few weeks. Oil could drop to 80 before a bounce. Wheat has a breakout and people are starting to pay attention to it. Gold looks ok and may be in...
ALl in the video, still bullish on the stock market, but a small sell off first would be appropriate to trap shorts. OIl looks like 92 target should come sooner rather than later. Bonds still under the channel. Wheat still looks great. Gold looks promising and the US dollar likely pulls back to help it. BTC hard to tell but I would think higher after a small sell off.
OK a nice bounce into the daily MA cluster. I do think we get choppy over the next few weeks, so expect a lot of up and down and take profits when you get them. SPX may pullback early next week only to rally into the end of the week. Oil similar choppy movies to 92 and maybe 95 later in September. Wheat tested it's channel and so far has pulled away nicely. Gold...
Paul Wankmueller CMT of Blue Line Futures sees a Head and Shoulders Top in December 2022 CBOT Wheat. Feel free to reach out with any Technical Analysis Questions! Today Wheat broke through the neckline of a Head & Shoulders top with conviction, confirming the pattern. Using the distance between the neckline and the top of the head, the continuation can conclude...
Wheat has been the most volatile commodity since the war started and we have fallen back to $1000 as peace talks improved. Similar to Oil though peace will not fix the supply/demand issues with Ukraine and Russia accounting for 30% of wheat exports. The consolidation period is likely over and if we can get some positive price action more buyers are likely to...
Famine and Food Shortages are the talk over the last month as Russia invades Ukraine. How are we playing this? Where can people look to hedge inflation and war? Here are two simple methods we take a look at to play commodities and agricultural commodities. RJA and RJI by Jim Rogers we believe will continue to rise due to inflation and war. A little fast recently...
Hello and Welcome, We expect wave (3) to end at 1157.6 which at this level wave (3) will equal 3.618 multiply of wave (1).
I will say it again. Caution in all asset classes remains. How much risk are you taking on for how much reward you are expecting to acquire? Keep asking yourself that question. Better to be out of the market wishing you were in rather than being in the market wishing you were out.