We can see price broke out of an ascending structure following CHF weakness across the board. Price is now retesting the top of this ascending structure.
Where will price head next? Two potential price paths for you follow.
Have a great trading day and weekend!
USDJPY H4 - Still bearish bias for the USD personally, there isn't any real reason to justify reasons otherwise. Popped back above S/R but nothing to indicate a change in trend, USDCAD is the anomaly, setting fresh highs off the back of OPEC talks. Summary in the above video.
AUDJPY H4 - Very similar to the GBPCHF range, trading between 76 whole number and 75 whole number, decent 100 pip range of a pair which generally warrants confirmation. RR is there too, lets see how we respond to this 76.00 resistance zone.
As we can see on this hurly chart price fell out of this rising wedge (bearish formation) and has now printed new lower lows, waiting to see how price responds to this highlighted level as there is a few confluences here (50EMA, 38.2 Fib level and previous low)
We can see on the daily TF that price has now hit this descending TL for the third time, where we are at a structure level, 38.2 fib level and the 50EMA acting as support. With a confirmed entry being on the 4H TF (huge Bearish wick)
On the daily chart we can see price is coming up to test the resistance of this longer term descending TL, with another confluence that we are at a resistance level on a smaller term TL channel, where its likely to see a bounce don from here, also creating lower lows and lower highs in this corrective channel, price could take an impulsive move lower. Which means...
Shorts look good from here. Third touch of descending TL, fib retracement up into the 61.8, 50EMA acting as resistance shown by multiple wick candlesticks. Series of lower highs and lower lows. 7.5:1 RR, valid set up and I prefer this to my previous EURGBP I have just published (as they contradict each other with GBP different bias)
The Indians are looking weak on this 3D time frame.
The theory of curves says (at the moment) that price is losing steam for the north. South is the greater probability estimate. Note: this leaves a residual probability for the north.
Disclaimer: Lose your money and sue yourself!
Sellers came in strongly as seasonal weakness set in
Look for selling to continue till Mid-September where then it gets a bit choppy before the seasonal strength period in October
Support levels are marked on the chart
AUDCAD pair is weakening for the last couple of weeks and a recent pullback from previous low at 0.8889 is now ready to fall again. This time probably re-testing 0.8889. Partial profit is set at 0.89379 while a stop loss is at 0.90577. Risk/Reward for this short trade is 1:1.3
PLAN YOUR TRADES AND TRADE YOUR PLANS
There are a few factors that indicate a big EUR sell off in the next few weeks. A break in the current resistance with little support in the way for reversal and a declining economic strength will be in favour of the USD to push the EUR further to the short side.