USDCAD is in a definite trend south. There may be opportunities for shorting or going long coming up. I'll be looking for trend switches north to go long. However price could equally continue south. This post is therefore preparatory for moves that may come.
Although USDCAD has posted two ‘Inside Days’ (which highlights indecision) there is no clear indication that the selloff is coming to an end.
Bearish expanding wedge on the weekly chart with a DeMark 13
Broken the wedge formation on the daily chart
Intraday chart is holding inside a corrective channel
Weekly – Bearish Outside Candle with bearish expanding wedge pattern
Daily – Breaks the wedge to the downside. Measured move 1.3115. Outside Day posted yesterday
We look to sell at 1.3400 Stop 1.3440 Target 1.3115
Economic figures could adversely affect the short term technical picture.
Loads of crowds are heading north on USDCAD. I don't follow crowds - sorry. In this screencast, I show my rationale for a contrarian perspective based on patterns in USDCAD (1D) and weakening in US-Dollar (1D) trend strength. I'm currently exploiting a 30 min time frame microtrend and willing to take a controlled loss (aka stop-loss), to limit how wrong I may be....
The big picture on USDCAD is useful to get an idea of what may be probabilities on lower time frames. There are some unusual goings on at a 1D time frame, one I've never seen before.
So, I'm stalking this one closely for a trend change.
I'm showing mainly for the benefit of new traders why I've done what I've done. This trade is on both paper and live accounts.
Note that I'm not saying I'm gonna win. I aim to lose! I'm simply controlling my loss, and allowing the market to lead me wherever it will, in my favoured probabilistic direction.
Trend-following is not for everybody. In fact,...