I will be looking to enter a long trade within the purple box which is a key daily zone that has previously acted as a resistance for price and we are now looking for it to act as support.
We have added confluence to this trade via the blue trend line which we can see has previously been well respected and therefore this increases confidence that this will serve...
We continue to review the Forex market. Now before us is USD/JPY. Microtrend rising, already loses its strength. The main trend is downwards. Formed the initial diagonal triangle. Now you can log in to shorts. Looks like wave 5 is going to end at the bottom of the Pitchfork. Targets on schedule. Although it is not the end
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USDJPY has plenty of room to fall down if we break the uptrend. We watch the lower timeframes and post a short setup.
We have completed a 5 wave move up with a LTF wave down. The HTF is for more up but there is an opportunity to grap some pips here. If price pulls back to .618 I will take the short to retest the pivot low to the 11.8 extension.
The unfilled gap is of concern as it has had very little penetration and may be a strong support level.
Watch for a break of the gap and...
Some correction occurs on USD/JPY. The price has retraced back into the reference area at 101.33-101.04. Remains bearish as long as the resistance at 101.04 remains intact. As intraday trading strategy, you must get bearish signal confirmation by trading below 100.24 with potential target at 98.96.
The Bank of Japan is starting to lose its sense of humor when it comes to the USD/JPY pair. I believe most traders know this, and 100 will offer bounces soon. Perhaps after jobs number? If we fall below 100, a lot of short covering will happen before the weekend as well...
Short until 110.7 !! TP = 110.7
Then afterwards long until 112.3 as then it will hit possible support level.
Of course this is only technical analysis, watch the fundamentals this week as April 28 is important for the JPY, so lots of volatility expected. Trade safe.
Looking at prior history (left) on this Weekly chart you can see that we're at an important area here. We can see that the Bat completed, but failed to even break to a full 27.2% retrace. We then continued on down to fully complete the H&S pattern (& 200% ext); yet again, failed to retrace even 27.2% before a low NFP pushed it back down to retest prior lows area....
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The USD/JPY has just completed a 5th wave truncated and a double bottom.
The result was a break of a trend line which should put us in at least a pull back of the larger move or a trend reversal.
Time to catch the C Wave or the 3rd wave of a reversal. Targets will be 108.228 or 109.425
Trend Continuation.
Pair near certain to test the monthly support at 105.627 - we are seeking a short term upwards correction to enter on exhausted buying.
Although this pattern did NOT hit full target of $111.479 it looks to be in full retrace mode. In combination with multiple candle formations I'm looking for at least a retest/pause of noted confluence, and a push for $108.3. If we hit that area I will re-evaluate. My area of risk would be about $110.6-75 (tolerance dependent, close or breach).
