Interest rate bull and bear markets can run for many years before they change direction. Currently the yield curve is the lowest it has ever been and is still declining. The long term charts above are strongly suggesting that the bear market in interest rates ended during the pandemic crash low in 2020 after 39 years of decline. This will have major...
TLT on a 120 minute chart has continued its trend down since early December after a suddent uptrend in November lasting for a two month until the end of 2023. Inflation data is kicking the rate cut down the road of time. Price has now fallen under the VWAP and all of the EMA lines including the EMA20. Relative strength trending correlates with price . I...
TLT has been in a broadening wedge and formed a falling wedge within the larger pattern. Price bounced off the lower supoort trendline in the mid-morning of trading then rising to break out of the falling wedge. I see this as an opportunity to take a long trade in TLT and close out a TBT position at the same time. This reversal may be due to the value...
Seeing a weekly momentum shift forming, expect major trend change. Couple of scenarios, Economy could break and fed allows inflation to creep up while easing on rates, If they reduce reverse repo rates then yields will drop as money market funds buy 1 yr bills on the open market again. Otherwise they might have to increase rates if inflation continues to weigh...
The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield has turned bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 60.193, MACD = 0.003, ADX = 38.653) as it crossed above the 1D MA200 again, with the 1D MA50 following right under it, with the two on an emerging 1D Golden Cross. We have anticipated that rebound from the HL of the Channel Up on our previous idea and our medium-term target...
TLT on the 15 minute chart in the past two trading sessions consolidated and then fell into a pullback to the support of the anchored mean VWAP. Relative volatility spiked and has now contracted. I see this as a good entry to add to my TLT position having sold a good portion of it three trading days ago when price showed topping wicks outside the fibonacci...
Looking for a pullback into bear channel after the strong selling of 10-year bond futures from Friday's job report. Yields jumped today, so I would think there's some buyers coming into US session. At least there's a decent chance.
I'm huge ultra BULLISH on US treasuries currently, so please excuse my bias. Not in any specific order, however here are all the factors in this thesis... 1. Interest rates have dramatically increased since Jan 2021, and the overall bond market, including treasuries, had its worst 2 years on record, going back to 1915. 2. Since Nov 2022 just after Halloween,...
Macro Monday 30 U.S. Net Treasury International Capital Flows In essence the U.S. Net Treasury International Capital Flows (US TIC Flows) refer to the movement of funds into or out of the United States through the purchase or sale of U.S. Treasury securities by foreign investors and governments. These flows of capital are an essential component of the overall...
Hello Traders! The FED's monetary policy is not convincing the markets, but Powell seems very determined to meet his inflation targets. In near term, market seems to want to counter this hawkish monetary policy, but that could change going forward. In short term, yields remain at high levels and I don't exclude that this rally could continue for the last bullish...
Treasury bond - 10Y US Notes came down a lot in the last two years but this cycle can now come to an end as we can see five waves down into 2023 lows ona weekly time frame. In fact, we also see five subwaves completed within wave (5) on a daily chart after prices recovered and break above the trendline resistance. The move is strong, thus we think that more upside...
US10Y breaking support. Good entry on bond etf's. Only picking up a small amount to get in the door. ZROZ, EDV, and TLT.
Wall Street Investment banks are predicting various prices for the S&P 500 close at the end of 2024. But if the current 1-year Treasury Bill Yield is the same as the estimates then why bother buying the S&P 500? It would be safer buying bills and you may get an equal return. This piece of analysis will look at: Historical accuracy of Wall Street Banks S&P 500...
20-YEAR AMERICAN TREASURY BONDS: SHARK detected. We are in a potential turnaround zone. The EMA.200 and EMA.50 are possible targets, as well as the red PRZ above. To watch, as well as the ICHIMOKU / Bollinger / Fibonacci Levels
The yield curve has inverted to the most extreme degree ever, which is a warning that a recession is coming. In this video, I analyze the charts for the AMEX:SPY S&P 500, NASDAQ:NVDA Nvidia, NASDAQ:AAPL Apple, and the yield curve on U.S. Treasurys to see what they're telling us about future price action. In the video, I mention that the bull rally following...
TBT is a UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF. This Fund seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to two times the inverse (-2x) of the Daily performance of the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. 1. Always look first. Never rush into a trade or investment blindly. 2. Wait, and wait again, for the pattern to develop. 3. Be patient...
Looking at the Monthly Chart of the TLT 20yr bond etf. I see a large ABCD Pattern Set up. The Initial Triangle has not completed. Currently there is heavy selling in Bonds (C leg sell off to D leg of the bullish cypher) The Trend Line was breached, and now the sell off is acting like a Magnet to retest 2008 lows. It's worth noting this sell off appears to be A...
Traders, In my last post I stated that BTC must absorb the price of 26,500 for the bulls to come back out and play again. It did. Now, we are running into the 50 day moving avg. which is acting as resistance and should give those of us seeking re-entry into longs a bit of time to make those entry decisions. However, I spotted something sus on the U.S....