The US10Y continues to trade inside the long term Channel Down since the October 21st High and has now formed the same peak formation as then. With the 1D time frame neutral (RSI = 45.126, MACD = 58.593, MACD = -0.280), the conditions have emerged for a new long term sell. If the previous -20% decline is repeated, then target the bottom of the Channel Down on a TP...
$TNX :: 10-year treasury looks like it could potentially sustain at this level for some time and potentially continue it's grind higher. The macro environment is looking increasingly bearish for stocks as the days go by.
10x.....from a low 0.31% in March to 3.48% currently. With Fed speak not being understood by the market....the technicals might. The 10 year yield s are all set to usher the new year at higher levels.
Based on the TLT pattern shown here, bonds may have much further below to go. They've continued to steadily sell off as rates have continued climbing, and show no signs of a long-term bounce. Target 1 has been breached, leaving target 2 in the crosshairs: $86-87.
Bonds have sold off into the mid 118's after smashing through 119'01. We have gradually drifted up from there, but are meeting resistance at 119'01. It will take some momentum to break through this level and right now it does not seem that ZN can muster the strength. The Kovach OBV has edged upward, but appears quite weak. If ZN is able to somehow break out,...
Bonds have picked up, breaking through several of our upside levels. We set a target of 119'23, and that is exactly the level we've reached. We are seeing signs of resistance here from several red triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has picked up however, but it is doubtful momentum will take us much further, given the market conditions. If we are able to...
Bonds have edged out new lows as investors weigh deescalation of the war in Ukraine and increased expectations for a Fed rate hike . Yields in ZN, the 10 year treasury note, are the highest they've been since July 2019. We have sliced through multiple technical levels below, and have established new lows, yet again. We do appear to be seeing a brief pivot...
Bonds took a sharp nose dive off increased Fed rate hike expectations and inflation. We smashed through our lowest levels of support and drove deeper into the 126 handle, before finally bottoming out at 125'17, a support level extrapolated from inverse Fibonacci levels, a tool we are relying on more and more, now that we have exhausted all of our lower technical...
All eyes turn back to inflation and rates as the economy is creating jobs. Scouting the reopening trade for Q2.
An echo of the Monthly Broadening Wedge, the 4-hour broke bull on the surprise Jobs Report.
the H&S broke for the confirmation, but only to the first maker at the .214. A Diamond Continuation has fueled the yield to back above 1.80
Price is testing the neckline with mini-bull pennant below the neckline. A low volume day in the indexes as consolidation commenced after the covering rally yesterday. AAPL has led the bull rotation, with Meta finding support at $300. MSFT found supply at the 338 zone with 15!! tests of that resistance since it's loss on 11/23.
The one area that is transitory is the messaging around whether or not inflation is in fact transitory. The new boss the same as the old boss, low rates for the win.
The 10 Year Bond Yield found resistance at the 8h 50 SMA; with support at the monthly 8 EMA. The 8-hour model's H&S Pattern Target Ruler's .35 offered a support wick as the low interest rate environment continues with a sub 1.5 reading.
After the flight to safety Bond Yields are recovering, with support being found at the Yellow Channel GP.
Price move inverse to yields; the monthly pattern offered neckline support, suppressing yields.
Yields were turned away at the monthly H&S neckline (inverted view) to support a NAS and SPX Daily MBB Bounce. NAS resistance at the Daily 8 EMA.
Sometimes it helps to invert the charts, particularly in bonds where price is inverse to yields, to see what the pattern looks like in the mirror. Bull plays in Big Tech would benefit from a bounce of this monthly neckline. As long as yields increase, and the Vix is elevated, the Santa rally is waiting for the sleigh to get out of the garage for repairs.