Downward trendline from early this year still holds strong. It's been rejected 5 times already. And the latest weekly candlestick is a classic example of an inverted hammer rejecting the trendline. 3200 is the main target due to a couple things. 1- Order block from late 2020. 2- all fib lines align at this point.
pretty clear rejection at FOMC. local low test next. prolly get some type of bounce there.
macro, however, this looks awful. gaining confidence in revisit of 3k.. which would nearly round trip this entire covid move.. talk about brutal
original chart linked.
we may be a little late to the move, but we're officially bearish.
key deviation and eventual rejection at our S/R pivot.
this feels like the start of 5 more waves down
Detailed continuation of the idea linked below.
Hoping at least three people tell me I'm wrong.
Before you do, this last "C" count is based on my opinion that it is a terminal pattern with a 5th wave horizontal triangle, so keep in mind that many of the typical rules (mostly overlap) do not apply.
TVC:SPX
The VIX is a volatility index based on the S&P 500. It has recently hit lows and is nearing the all-time low. The last few times it hit this low around 12 or so it rebounded up to 22-24. That doesn't mean that just because we hit that level we will rebound up to the highs and the S&P 500 drop. After a few rotations, we do see a pop and last time that pop brought...
Sell order at price 2852
StopLoss 2860
TakeProfit 2808
Risk-Reward-Ratio 5.3
Why open position
- breakout last high and stay near it
- sell horizontal level at 2853
- angle level to sell
Let's look at a few things here - First: Based on the last down swing we have reached the 1.272 extension which, based off the patterns taught by Larry Pesavento, is a key extension for trend reversal (the other, 1.618 I have on the chart as well, as that'd be the next target if this one fails). Second: Volume is telling us a similar story, I added my relative...
Guideline of Equality, in which wave 1 is equal to wave 5.
Although Wave 5 of 5 could fail to make a new high, so correction might come sooner.
Load up in Gold and yen. Short USD.
Short idea for USDJPY linked.
It would seem as we are about to complete the 5th wave of a 5 wave structure on the S&P500.
Given that we could state we are in wave 4 of wave 5, we could expect a wave 5 of 5.
This could be finished at the confluence area of the 1.27 and 1 fibonacci in 2493 - 2527.
Wave 5 of 5 could also fail to make a new high and go short way before.
In conclusion, it could...
Expect a decent move at the confluence here. My natural bias at the moment would be for a break to the downside, but emotionally i would say that, as I am currently net short the wider markets.
Use a tight stop though as there could be a bounce at this confluence too.
End of the bull run
Global Equity Indexes:
1. SPX/ Global Equity indexes in the past 2/3wks saw a post-brexit central bank easing induced rally, as many CB released dovish statements following the vote which spurred investor confidence in fresh easing.
- IMO much of the bull run was based on BOJ easing hopes, given the size of the economy (4th largest)...
The Paradoxical Risk-on/ Risk-off Asset positive correlation:
1. Risk off assets have outperformed to date, with Gold leading the gains at 28%, JPY following at 18% and US 10y treasuries Trading 16% up in 2016 - average at 20.5%.
2. Meanwhile, SPX trades 5% up since 4.1.2016 but more importantly, since 20th January lows SPX is up 15%.
3. this is significantly...
Post Brexit SPX vs USDJPY
1. One had expected risk to sell off post brexit as global uncertainty increases, given the amount of volatility in the FX markets in the lead up, this was the rational expectation (whilst VIX traded subdued). However, instead, SPX recovered 6% whilst Yen also rallied 7% higher in the days following the vote.
2. This risk-on risk-off...
At the start of 2016 the PBOC began aggressively devaluing the off-shore Yuan against the USD, imo in an attempt to start the year with a competitive export:import advantage - with the aim of making 2016 a headline "come back" year for China amid the growing GDP growth and Credit bubble worries.
As a result Equities across the board sold-off (-8.5% in a few...
