The Paradoxical Risk-on/ Risk-off Asset positive correlation:
1. Risk off assets have outperformed to date, with Gold leading the gains at 28%, JPY following at 18% and US 10y treasuries Trading 16% up in 2016 - average at 20.5%.
2. Meanwhile, SPX trades 5% up since 4.1.2016 but more importantly, since 20th January lows SPX is up 15%.
3. this is significantly...
Post Brexit SPX vs USDJPY
1. One had expected risk to sell off post brexit as global uncertainty increases, given the amount of volatility in the FX markets in the lead up, this was the rational expectation (whilst VIX traded subdued). However, instead, SPX recovered 6% whilst Yen also rallied 7% higher in the days following the vote.
2. This risk-on risk-off...
At the start of 2016 the PBOC began aggressively devaluing the off-shore Yuan against the USD, imo in an attempt to start the year with a competitive export:import advantage - with the aim of making 2016 a headline "come back" year for China amid the growing GDP growth and Credit bubble worries.
As a result Equities across the board sold-off (-8.5% in a few...
Now that the Brexit risk has been realised the mentioned pairs above will share some correlation this week as the market changes between risk-on and risk-off as MANY on the events continually drive the sentiment shifts.
My Plan & Expectations
USDJPY
1. My conviction for UJ is long 8/10.
-UJ traded to lows of 98.9 in the midst of the brexit hype, as the...
An analysis of which LONG has the best value against the short GBP to play the Brexit. [
- GBPUSD has a target handle of 1.385.
- GBPJPY target handle at 1.483.
- GBPCHF target handle at 1.335 .
- IMO currently i rule out GBPUSD short, as USD doesnt have the same "risk-off" demand as CHF and JPY. Also USD and GBP economies are perhaps the most highly...
