Intraday Scalp
1) DESCENDING TRIANGLE
2) BREAKING MINOR SUPPORT
3)CURRENTLY ON A PULL BACK FROM TESTING Resistance ON THE HOURLY
& MORE..
EXPECTING A BREAK AND A CLOSE BELOW 1.1237 TO GO SHORT
IMO Mark Carney was very dovish on the margin, certainly reinforcing their/ my view of an August cut being 90% on the table. The most supportive statements were "MonPol Important In Cushioning Effects Of Any Relapse In Recovery In Months & Quarters Ahead", "The MPC Does Not Have The ''Luxury '' and "More Should Be Done To Cushion The Effects Of Negative Shocks" -...
GBPUSD
- At the end of last week GU traded to lows of 1.32 on the brexit vote, before retracing substantially to 1.39 by the end of the day.
- GU retraced 600-700pips after the brexit event IMO solely as investors took profit from their shorts (which causes buying) - thus there was no structural reason for GU recovering e.g. it was that 1.32 had mispriced GU...
Indicators to check BEFORE GBP Shorting for confirmation
I also suggest using two other key pieces of information BEFORE shorting GBP.
1. Use USDJPY as a measure of market risk appetite and stability
- As you can see below UJ has traded with a tight 38pip range vs GBP$ at 180pips. Therefore we can use UJ as a measure of stability and risk appetite:
1)...
Thought id put a piece out as my guide for the week for how to trade the 23rd UK EU Referendum vote.
IMO the first rule and most important is - DONT TRADE THE VOTE.
Trying to guess the answer is like trying to win the lottery, so instead i advise taking a position on the volatility , as volatility doesnt discriminate, it trades both ways.
Trading the...
Wanted to post a quick message telling people to sell the rally for 100-200 pips dependant on how quickly you get on the short..
Volatility is trading lower (as we expect in a rally) however it WILL pick up again/ reverse once it bottoms out - which i think is now!
The trend for all GBP pairs is LOWER hence dont fight the trend with longs INSTEAD when you see...
My FX portfolio currently consists of :
- 2Long x USDJPY @ 106.8; 2Short x GBPJPY @ 151.2 (dynamic hedge for long UJ); 2Short x GBPUSD @ 1.4570. I will add to my short GBPUSD holdings if i can get a similar price & I may add to short GBPCHF or EURCHF downside if markets make a turn for the worst as IMO CHF denominations are under-priced relatively (as discussed...
This article is a tradable summary of all of the indepth GBP$ analysis i have done recently - I aim to give you a conclusive opinion and trading plan. SEE PART 2 ALSO
I suggest you check out ALL of the relevant articles that i attach to this post so that this post makes sense
In a nutshell i am heavily short GU, about 8-9/10 @1.44/5 (@1.41 only 2/10) -...
A disappointing open from cable with a bears perspective.
Gapping down 100 pips to 1.435 almost immediately puts my sell limit orders (at 146.5) in "unlikely" territory of being hit this week.
On friday following the $ EMP report cable managed to rally to 1.458 - i was hopeful it would tick a few more pips upward before the slew of selling started as we move...
