M Formation has formed over the last month.
The price also broke below the uptrend, which signalled strong downside to come.
The EUR is not looking good along with other other counterparties.
And we have further downside signals like.
21>7
Price<200
RSI<50
Target 1 will be all the way to 0.8407 which gives this potential trade a Risk to Reward of 1:1.8
With EURUSD being back to test the daily supply, and bouncing off, I'm confident in the sell down to TP 1, possibly 2, and will leave 1 position running to TP3
1:5 RR trade .. We think that the short-lived bullish trend has ended as the EU elite are taking their profits before the ECB meeting. The ECB could have a big surprise for us on Thursday!
Fundamentals:- Although there was some weak data from the US last week as a whole the economy is still on the upside. Non Farm payrole figures came in better than expected whilst unemployment creeped back up t 4% from 3.8%. Average hourly earnings also dropped from 0.3% to 0.2%. Over the long term I don't expect this to hold the USD down for any length of time. ...
Fundamentals:- After a failed trade on this currency pair today we still believe the downside is imminent. Why? After a subdued super Thursday from the BOE and no change in either rate hike or votes by the MPC. Mark Carney later said in an interview with the BBC that it was likely rates would rise before the end of this year. With the outlook for Europe pushing...
The Gross underpricing of ECB and FOMC Monetary Policy Changes - A fully-priced medium-term equilibrium Lower coming?
EURUSD:
*Short EURUSD 3m-12m Duration: 1/2lots @1.11 - 1.07TP1; 1.04-5TP2 1.01TP3
1. On Decemeber 2nd the ECB cut their rate by 10bps to 0.05%, paradoxically this actually caused EURUSD to rally higher. Thus this is a mispricing as...
IMO the ECB minutes were the most dovish/ clearly directed statements out of the ECB for several months. Before this, and in the past several speakers comments, sentiment has been towards the hawkish/ stale side, citing "ECB has done enough" as the main rhetoric.
The June Minutes however show a renewed positioning of the ECB, where they clearly imply they are...
Fundamentally the euro is one of the weakest currencies out there and the recent rally is another excuse to go short. The GBP has got some potential as the next rate decision is likely to be an increase according to the BoE. tECHNICALLY WE CAN SEE THE PINBAR REJECTION OF THE 7800 LEVEL WHICH WAS OUR BUYING TARGET FROM A FEW WEEKS BACK AND A POTENTIAL REVERSAL...
The success of this trade is really going to depend on the outcome of the ECB press conference later today. If the ECB is dovish then the Euro will fall to previous lows of this year. However if they come out with hawkish tones in their language then we could rally back to 11050 and 13000. The fundamental direction for the Euro is bearish so I expect it to return...
