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Predictions and Analysis
SHORT AUDNZD: 1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) AUDNZD has a cumulative probability of a =>7th day lower at 0.5%, hence there is a implied 99.5% chance of reversal on the daily. 2. Technically there is also some nice structure about the 1.045 level. Trading Strategy: 1. Sell AUDNZD at market in 1xlot, and add 2x on each...
RBNZ not adding much new in their September statement, and imo, Gov Wheelers speech highlighting the issues with trying to control a ccy with the cash rate makes the persistent worries regarding kiwi/ nzd strength less of a dovish factor than it may appear. Nonetheless, the statement on the margin was neutral, with perhaps the pressure for a lower kiwi and...
Long EURNZD: 1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) EURNZD has a cumulative probability of a =>6th day lower at 0.5%, hence there is a implied 99.5% chance of reversal on the daily. 2. Also we see the Z-Score for, Monthly, 3m and 2wk all above 1SD. 3. Fundamentally I also like being long EUR given the ECBs new more neutral...
Long GBPNZD: 1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) GBPNZD has a cumulative probability of a =>6th day lower at 0.99%, hence there is a implied 99% chance of reversal on the daily. 2. Also we see the Z-Score for, Monthly, 3m and 2wk all above 1.5SD - with 1m heavily over sold at -2SD. 3. Fundamentally Sterling looks a little...
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