probabilities

In this screencast, I show how shorting on a 2H time frame is optimal for me to take a controlled loss. I explain where I see the big trends and some smaller trends. Note that this is not a prediction, or recommendation to short. I use a very different methodology which is not 'just on the charts', though at times in simplifying things it may appear like a...

EU broke a huge consolidation area and that can be seen with the broken counter channel. Price is now retesting that breakout and could possibly fall further to make new LLs and LHs at 1.12000. with that being said, be careful of the potential double bottom for a new rally to the upside. Follow risk/money management, there is plenty of time to become millionaire.

In the screencast, I explore the main timeframes and show my reasoning for shorting. (Not a recommendation or advice for anyone else to short).

There is a possibility for a triple bottom and potential reversal. Let's see how this plays out. This is not forecast unlike my other charts, just an idea/possibility that has a realistic chance to come to fruition. People called 4k when we hit 6k bottom and where I bought, people called for 4.8k at 6.45k where I bought, people called for 5k at 6.1k where I...

Trade with >70% probability: SELL SH @ 1,23650, stop-loss 1,2391

Trade with >70% probability: BUY close@ 1,2270 Risk: - 44 pips Profit: +46 pips Profit/ Risck Ratio: +104,5% Theoric Probability: >70% Actual Probability: + 93,3% Total Gain: +451pips

trade with >70% probability. short@ 1.2305 ; stop-loss @ 1.2357

SHORT Trade with >70% probability: sell close@ 1,2336 Risk: - 54pips Profit: +23pips Profit/ Risck Ratio: +42,59% Theoric Probability: >70% Actual Probability: + 90% Total Gain: +305 pips

trade with >70% probability. buy@ 1.2213 ; stop-loss @ 1.2259

trade with >70% probability. buy@ 1.2275 ; stop-loss @ 1.2211;

trade with >70% probability. short @ 1.2427 ; stop-loss @ 1.2477

The Price Action and volatility at the 1.0750 was the catalyst to this high probability short. I owe this trade to a lot of patience because I have been stalking this for weeks. Targeting the FX_IDC:EURUSD1.05 handle for my first Take Profit. Stop Loss will be moved to Break Even on the close below 1.0630. Any questions then feel free to comment below....

Long EURNZD: 1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) EURNZD has a cumulative probability of a =>6th day lower at 0.5%, hence there is a implied 99.5% chance of reversal on the daily. 2. Also we see the Z-Score for, Monthly, 3m and 2wk all above 1SD. 3. Fundamentally I also like being long EUR given the ECBs new more neutral...