probabilities

In the screencast, I explore the main timeframes and show my reasoning for shorting. (Not a recommendation or advice for anyone else to short).

There is a possibility for a triple bottom and potential reversal. Let's see how this plays out. This is not forecast unlike my other charts, just an idea/possibility that has a realistic chance to come to fruition. People called 4k when we hit 6k bottom and where I bought, people called for 4.8k at 6.45k where I bought, people called for 5k at 6.1k where I ...

Trade with >70% probability: SELL SH @ 1,23650, stop-loss 1,2391

Trade with >70% probability: BUY close@ 1,2270 Risk: - 44 pips Profit: +46 pips Profit/ Risck Ratio: +104,5% Theoric Probability: >70% Actual Probability: + 93,3% Total Gain: +451pips

trade with >70% probability. short@ 1.2305 ; stop-loss @ 1.2357

SHORT Trade with >70% probability: sell close@ 1,2336 Risk: - 54pips Profit: +23pips Profit/ Risck Ratio: +42,59% Theoric Probability: >70% Actual Probability: + 90% Total Gain: +305 pips

trade with >70% probability. buy@ 1.2213 ; stop-loss @ 1.2259

trade with >70% probability. buy@ 1.2275 ; stop-loss @ 1.2211;

trade with >70% probability. short @ 1.2427 ; stop-loss @ 1.2477

The Price Action and volatility at the 1.0750 was the catalyst to this high probability short. I owe this trade to a lot of patience because I have been stalking this for weeks. Targeting the FX_IDC:EURUSD1.05 handle for my first Take Profit. Stop Loss will be moved to Break Even on the close below 1.0630. Any questions then feel free to comment below. ...

Long EURNZD: 1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) EURNZD has a cumulative probability of a =>6th day lower at 0.5%, hence there is a implied 99.5% chance of reversal on the daily. 2. Also we see the Z-Score for, Monthly, 3m and 2wk all above 1SD. 3. Fundamentally I also like being long EUR given the ECBs new more neutral ...