📌 NOK for the Yearly Close Now comes the traditional complex NOK and SEK map complex. I have mentioned a number of times SEK was in a very good position for sellers, now NOK is joining the disco because it is unlikely that dollar can manage to force the defence. A very amusing chart, for those with a background in waves we are playing the breakdown on a 5 wave...
A very technical environment here with Germany away from their desks, support clearly defined at the 10.8x lows while resistance towards 11.05x will cap the highs. With Crude starting to reach interesting levels for sellers the NOK rally will begin to unwind. The supply side can rebalance as much as they like, it will not offset the demand shock:
NOK got undervalued due to the OIL price decline Norges Bank interest rate: 1.5% vs ECB 0% -> carry favors NOK Inflation is also higher in Norway I went short on technical + fundamental factors coinciding.
Eyes on the technical breakdown in CADNOK to kickstart the week, a few important updates to make here as intervention begins globally from Central Banks and OPEC. For those tracking Oil you will know we got the massive meltdown that we have been expecting in the chart-pack since last year: I am tracking a much larger than expected cut from OPEC at...
Here I continue to track the highs in USDNOK for a very long time and likely till the next decade. With Dollar devaluation in full swing and Norges Bank famously the last Hawk standing it is time to start working the sell side. For those tracking the previous Technical Portrait this was the initial chart I am tracking: On the Dollar side I continue to...
Here we are tracking the beginning of a -20% swing in USDNOK as we enter into the final Quarter of 2019. This is against the trend, start small, look to scale in, remain nimble and when it starts working we can go large. On the Fundamentals side, Norges raising rates 25bp earlier in the month to 1.50%, rate markets are now pricing another hike in Q120 despite...
We are trading on the NOK side, the monetary policy divergence between Norges Bank and the rest of central bank expectations around the world will be enough to keep NOK rallying. These guys are literally the only guys in town still hiking, a very obvious trade from a fundamental perspective and looks particularly attract from the technical side. As you all...
Interestingly investors lack willingness on the risk front despite a US - China G20 meeting on the cards. Markets are skeptical of a deal as the preluding tone is even more neutral than last November when Trump and Xi had a similar call. Current tariffs are still going to weigh heavy on growth, an earnings recession looks a done deal with the weakening US outlook...
What are we trading here? Norway is outperforming in the G10, unemployment falling while inflation exceeding expectations. As a result, interest rates are moving in favour of NOK. The hawkish surprise earlier in the week from Norges Bank suggested that more hikes are necessary has been supportive of the currency. A key risk is Oil prices holding firm around...
Trade coming 4 hours late it is based on the lower than expected inflation data that came today, as Norway seems to be dragged by Europe. This will lower expectations of interest rate hike in Norway, some of which had been priced in NOK. That pricing is going for some loss. Remember that this is a late trade, SL is poisitioned below February month's low (and...
SEKNOK is offering an interesting setup in the weekly chart. I'm short, looking to benefit from the positive carry of this pair, and also the topping pattern on chart. I'd reccomend adding to it once we're 1 atr in the money after entry. Currently, we have a valid time at mode sell signal on chart, where the mode nicely matches the previous sharp rally's top....
I stumbled upon EURNOK over some chance discussions with some members here couple of weeks ago. I took on a short position back then and ever since I kept adding to my positions. This pair also gives +ve rollovers for shorts. This is the weekly chart, which validates the short positions. A descending triangle and RSI divergence on the weekly charts. I don't...