📌 NOK for the Yearly Close
Now comes the traditional complex NOK and SEK map complex. I have mentioned a number of times SEK was in a very good position for sellers, now NOK is joining the disco because it is unlikely that dollar can manage to force the defence. A very amusing chart, for those with a background in waves we are playing the breakdown on a 5 wave...
A very technical environment here with Germany away from their desks, support clearly defined at the 10.8x lows while resistance towards 11.05x will cap the highs.
With Crude starting to reach interesting levels for sellers the NOK rally will begin to unwind. The supply side can rebalance as much as they like, it will not offset the demand shock:
NOK got undervalued due to the OIL price decline
Norges Bank interest rate: 1.5% vs ECB 0% -> carry favors NOK
Inflation is also higher in Norway
I went short on technical + fundamental factors coinciding.
Eyes on the technical breakdown in CADNOK to kickstart the week, a few important updates to make here as intervention begins globally from Central Banks and OPEC.
For those tracking Oil you will know we got the massive meltdown that we have been expecting in the chart-pack since last year:
I am tracking a much larger than expected cut from OPEC at...
What are we trading here?
Norway is outperforming in the G10, unemployment falling while inflation exceeding expectations. As a result, interest rates are moving in favour of NOK. The hawkish surprise earlier in the week from Norges Bank suggested that more hikes are necessary has been supportive of the currency.
A key risk is Oil prices holding firm around...
Trade coming 4 hours late
it is based on the lower than expected inflation data that came today, as Norway seems to be dragged by Europe.
This will lower expectations of interest rate hike in Norway, some of which had been priced in NOK. That pricing is going for some loss.
Remember that this is a late trade, SL is poisitioned below February month's low (and...
SEKNOK is offering an interesting setup in the weekly chart.
I'm short, looking to benefit from the positive carry of this pair, and also the topping pattern on chart.
I'd reccomend adding to it once we're 1 atr in the money after entry. Currently, we have a valid time at mode sell signal on chart, where the mode nicely matches the previous sharp rally's top....
I stumbled upon EURNOK over some chance discussions with some members here couple of weeks ago. I took on a short position back then and ever since I kept adding to my positions. This pair also gives +ve rollovers for shorts.
This is the weekly chart, which validates the short positions.
A descending triangle and RSI divergence on the weekly charts. I don't...
