The consolidation pattern in the $VIX goes back to June 2020 after the initial COVID flash-crash scenario.
From June '21 to November '21, you started to see a bottoming formation turning into a new uptrend , subtle as might've been. The uptrend has chopped around in this rising channel since the end of 2021 up until the recent false breakdown during August...
The consolidation pattern in the TVC:VIX VIX goes back to June 2020 after the initial COVID flash-crash scenario.
From June '21 to November '21, you started to see a bottoming formation turning into a new uptrend , subtle as might've been. The uptrend has chopped around in this rising channel since the end of 2021 up until the recent false breakdown during...
Summary
The surge in energy and agricultural commodities in the past 6 months had materialized into serious inflation even down to the consumer end across the globe. To cope with inflation, the Fed has begun to raise rate at an accelerating pace. The rise in the interest rate of the USD causes dysfunction of traditional risk haven such as Japanese Yen FX:USDJPY...
This is a historic timeline showing the following:
Visuals:
1. Mid-term election years (Green Vertical Lines)
2. Peak Inflation (Yellow Vertical Lines)
3. Recession (Grey box)
Charts:
1. Inflation CPI
2. FedFundsRate
3. Unemployment Rate
You can note that there were two similar instances where inflation was getting higher during mid-term elections (1974 and...
Trade Set up - In theory, tactically shorting the ‘Aussie’ around 0.7100, targeting the psychological level of 0.7000 level would make sense for technical trades, given the entry would be aligned to a strong underlying trend. That said, the big picture and set-up on the daily makes us cautious to take that trade, in fact, we would look to initiate a long entry if...
