The Hang Seng Index, with everything measured in Hong Kong Dollars rather than US Dollars, offers a distinct perspective within our analysis portfolio, focusing on the Hang Seng Index Futures contract. Starting with a weekly chart overview, we've identified that the initial cycle likely concluded in 2008, followed by a flat correction. Notably, the correction for...
It seems HSI will prepare for a bullish trend.
With technical analysis and checking the wave structure of the chart, the corrections ahead of it will probably be a buying opportunity
Anta Sports recently continued to rise after an impulsive downward spike narrowly missed the magenta Target Zone between HK$58.95 and HK$33.60. Thus, it is quite possible that this downward spike has already completed the low of the green wave (2) and that the stock is now marching higher. However, we are not convinced that this is the case, so we believe that the...
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With this mask off policy, we can expect more people to come out of their home and resume their pre-Covid days - shopping, meeting friends at cafe, more dining out, weekend travel,etc. This is good news for local consumption along with the incentives that the Government is currently offering.
I posted here to go LONG on HSI...
The Hang Seng Index is Near Important Support
The economy of China is hit by the decision to liquidate the developer Evergrande due to a debt of USD 300 billion. Bloomberg writes that this will have huge consequences for all of China.
While the S&P 500 index rose by more than 3% since the beginning of January, the Hang Seng index fell by more than 8%. JPMorgan...
The Chinese economy has had 4 consecutive years of closing in decline. Evidently, the Chinese economy supercycle (as depicted in the chart) indicates that a reversal is well overdue (or superdue in this particular context). By the end of this year, it can be expected to see a relatively massive reversal in the Chinese economy, one that may catch many by surprise....
The HSI has risen sharply since Monday. Nevertheless, we continue to believe that the index is still working on a magenta-colored downward structure and is therefore not yet finished with its correction. Only after this five-part wave, and thus the turquoise-colored wave 3, has come to an end should things pick up a good bit - even if there is still further...
The current status is uncertain, and there are two possibilities:
1. If it is the 2nd wave of an upward trend, the HSI (Hang Seng Index) will rebound in the short term and surpass 16500. The level of 16500 will be tested multiple times, which would be the most favorable situation for the HSI.
2. If it is the 5th wave of a downturn, the HSI will break the 15400...
Today, we would like to briefly discuss a few underlying trends in China's economy, touching on the subject of unemployment, demographics, and deflation.
Youth unemployment
While the unemployment situation has improved in 2023, youth unemployment (for those aged between 16 and 24) has been a longtime issue in China. Indeed, it has steadily risen since 2018...
To summarize:
1. We are currently in the 5th wave down. The last wave.
2. Potentially a sharp drop for the last 2 weeks of Dec 2023.
3. Price might follow the same pattern as Dec 2018.
4. Target 10130-10145.
$TENCENT shows sign of price bottoming on last Thursday with high volume supporting the price from going down lower. (Yellow square box)
Based on our analysis, the rebound signals further sets in with price recover more than 50% of the Friday morning price fall. This indicating demand is coming back in after 2 weeks retrace & selling pressure easing. Which could...
In this analysis, I talk about how I used Elliott Waves to count the moves of Hang Seng Index from Jan 2018 to 24th Nov 2023.
The main points to take note are these:
1. The corrective move down in 2023 is over.
2. We are still in a minor corrective move down.
3. But a wave 3 up is round the corner and that it will be an explosive one.
4. The risk is low for this...
Xiaomi stock struggled to continue its uptrend last week and is currently trading slightly lower. However, we see this as a normal counter-reaction to the strong price gains and part of the substructure of the magenta wave (y), whose top and thus the end of the same-colored wave (B) should be in sight further north. Therefore, we expect that the bulls will soon...
The bulls were able to push the Hang Seng Index significantly higher on Friday, moving it further away from the yellow trading range between 17,424 and 15,571. However, we still expect the price to return to this area as part of the magenta wave (2) to make a lower low before the reversal occurs. That said, given the price action so far, we have to increase the...
The HANG SENG INDEX is the main indicator of the overall market performance in Hong Kong.
The index has underperformed the rest of the world since March 2020 and was among the worst performing indices globally from 2020-2022.
In October 2022 however the Index seems to have moved up in a 5 wave structure after having seen quite a freefall from Feb. 2021. This 5...
The bears have now pushed Geely stock back below its March low. This confirms our primary scenario that the stock is in the final phase of the overarching gray wave II from the high of the magenta wave (B). This move should now be advanced to the green target zone between HK$7.80 and HK$4.12. With the low placed, the price should then move significantly higher.
