On Monday, EURUSD managed to close above 1.18, but it is sliding down Tuesday morning. The pair feels unstable, as the ECB hinted last week that President Draghi will not reveal any new policy paths during the Jackson Hole symposium,
It means QE tapering may come not earlier than October, although before the market priced in September as the start of tapering...
Gold has gained 2.5% during the last month touching $1,300.77 high last Friday - the level not seen since November, 2016. But will it have courage to move further?
There are all the chances to see the breakout if some conditions are met. First, we don’t need strong USD. The lower the chances of a more aggressive monetary policy tightening from the Fed, the better...
What happened to USDJPY? It broke strong support around 109.00 and slid to 4-month low at 108.60.
And now look at 10-year yields that hit 2.17% beating a double bottom at Thursday’s low and the August, 11 low, standing at 2.18%.The bond market is hinting it doesn’t trust Fed, and doesn’t believe in tightening.
Meanwhile, gold reached $1,300.77, again confirming...
AUDUSD has gained 150 pips during a couple of days. But what war the trigger, and is it really the start of a new rally?
It’s always worth watching the market sentiment, and its reaction to economic events. If an indicator came out above expectations, and the currency was not able to show a strong appreciation, it’s the sign of a looming retreat. Today we saw...
EURUSD is in wait-and-see mode after US retail sales release, and is ready to make a breakthrough.
It’s not the data that matters. It’s all about the reaction of the asset. And the USD behavior speaks itself. The significantly better than expected retail sales data (0.6% mom vs 0.4%) coupled with sharp rise of Empire State Manufacturing PMI were not able to...
On Tuesday, USDJPY jumped higher rising more than 1.0% and touching 100.84. The first leg higher was triggered by Wall Street Journal article on North Korea backing away from its threat to launch missiles towards Guam. It reduced the demand on risk-off assets putting yen under pressure again.
And it may become the start of a long-term rally given the strong yen is...
USDCAD may resume the selloff this week. The pair has risen 9 trading days in a row until it reached 1.2752. It looks like it cannot go higher, and it means it’s the right time to focus on fundamentals which may trigger the pair slide.
We have already noted Canadian economy is doing fine. The labor market show good growth. Retails sales arein creasing. GDP has...
USDJPY reached 108.73, the level not seen since June, 14. That was the logical reaction to worse than expected US CPI release.
July US consumer price index came out at 1.7% vs +1.8% yoy forecast, and the monthly growth was 0.1% vs 0.2% expected. This is the smallest increase since March, and 5th month of disappointment in a row.
What does it mean? It means the...
EURUSD is still under pressure, and it’s all about geopolitics. Additional pressure comes from EURCHF moves, as traditional safe heaven swissy is very popular now.
However, we still have hopes that the conflict between Washington and Pyohgyang will not reach the critical point, and the current speculations just give us good opportunity to buy euro at cheaper...
There is a new topic in the market – geopolitics. And I know how to take profit on that! In the moments like this the market is focused on such safe haven assets like CHF, JPY, USD and gold. At the same time risk assets like RUB, AUD, NZD come under selling pressure. And this understanding will help us to find interesting crosses.
So, yesterday, Donald Trump...
AUDUSD has neared strong technical support at 0.79, and the speed at which the pair breaks it through will determine the speed of further AUD depreciation.
We need to remember that Australian economy is very sensitive to local currency appreciation, as it hurts trade and tourism activity due to more expensive goods and services. Given China is one of the key trade...
EURUSD turned out to be one of the strongest pairs in the currency market today. And by this we can conclude the market is not ready to sell euros even after stronger than expected US Non-Farm Payrolls report. The market is not ready to take profit on recent euro appreciation. And the market doesn’t believe in USD, and believes in euro.
Consider this – the...
The coming week will be exciting for NZDUSD. But for dollar moves, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary meeting will have a significant effect on the pair. Therearehighchancestoseetheratesunchangedatcurrent 1.75%. Theeconomygrowthisslowing. Inflationisslowing. The CPI slid to 1.7% to 2.2% previously.
The recent meeting we saw the RBNZ was quiet on the recent...
Two days ago USDJPY touched 1.5-month low at 109.92, and reversed the move right away, right now trading around 110.70. And all this happened despite rather dovish comments from Fed’s Bullard opposing to another rate hike before the year end.
Now the market is focused on US data. Recently, we have seen some disappointments, and the Fed looked less hawkish than it...
Cable becomes even stronger in the wake of better than expected PMI Manufacturing numbers. It reached 55.1 versus 54.4 in June mostly thanks to significant jobs creation. Isn't it an indicator of activity pickup and stronger economic growth?
However, we need to pass some more tests, before we confirm the longer-term bullish trend. For example, Services PMI will be...
EURUSD has refreshed 2.5-year high touching 1.1845 level. And we saw it happened on the back of rather positive housing data out of the USA.
We need to give a credit to euro zone data as well. The released core CPI number was above forecasts showing 1.2% rise instead of 1.1%. Moreover, German retail sales significantly exceeded the expectations printing 1.1% m/m...
Last week AUDUSD reached 1.8065, not seen since May, 2015. But the very same day it started to fall. Is it the start of bearish trend, or just a correction before another jump higher?
This week we have all the chances to understand the right direction. Till the last moment Australian dollar ignored any negative factors both from economy and the Reserve Bank of...
After OPEC meeting in Saint Petersburg the hopes for meeting balance of supply and demand have grown significantly. Saudi Arabia is planning to reduce oil export in August. Nigeria may join the agreement on oil production cut.
The US data also supports the further Brent rise, as API Weekly Crude Oil Stock fell 10.230 M, and EIA Crude Oil Stocks change reduced by...
