a costly lesson that requires constant reminding
especially in this Tiktok generation
when i thohght back in the day that UY Yen was high or at top $109 was the day i reaized that
market moves RANDOMLY and does not care about previous LEVELS ...
until now.. at $130 it feels so High yet it can go much higher
the OG in quantitative zero cost coupons and negative rates
with subways in the 1930s
touchscreens ai robotics in the 70s
and rise of gaming in the 80s
still is a decade ahead among developed countries
and 100 years++ ahead the rest of the emerging economies
December 2021 seems to be the end of this long lasting bull market.Markets affected by the inflationary easing policies followed by the FED, going back to the end of the subprime mortgage crisis, were blooming.
The rise of the NASDAQ100 is only an example of what happened due to boosting culture adopted by FED. This brings us to now.
What US is facing is the...
Gold broke out of its pennant pattern a couple of days ago. Either we have a breakdown or a shake out (caught me out at break even) occurring right now just below the 50ma. A similar shake out occurred during the last pennant just before it exploded north.
I have bullish leanings for gold, given all the stimulus and extra stimulus coming out of the US. I'll be...
Last year it was highly anticipated that the yellow metal would break the years long held trading range and make a new high. Well all that is unraveling pretty quickly to say the least, as the trade war enters its second year with no end in sight. The two year long and ongoing trade war between the worlds two largest economies has led to fear of recession in the...
GBPJPY:
1. Given Fed Yellen's "hawkish" market response and GBPUSD, GBPNZD and GBPAUD shorts TPd on the rally lower today cleared (FX risk book clear too), im looking to add some safe haven assets to my portfolio.
2. Looking at GBPJPY and GBP structures on the whole, there has been alot of sterling longs in the past 2wks accumulating in spot as economic...
Governor of the RBNZ Wheeler offered little bearish pressure on kiwi, refusing to go into any intervention talk and failing to say what the bank will actually use to tame this deflationaire NZD they are experiencing at the moment - with the comments below in mind imo this leaves on direction for Kiwi (short of some FOMC/ USD bullish pressure which seems unlikely...
Relatively poor delivery from the RBNZ, by the looks of the whipsaw the market wanted/ expected 50bps based on the AUD differential and the RBA rate cut last week 50bps or some alt policy (e.g. QE) seemed like the smart move to make. From here Kiwi and Aussie longs look preferential as the macro environment shifts to a yield seeking stance from monpol trading -...
BOE's policy decision and QIR was largely inline with expectations, perhaps even 10bn better than expected on the QE side - and was very forgiving with hints towards further interest easing, though the stubborn unwillingness to realise negative rates undermined this to some extent. GBPJPY and GBPUSD shorts traded into intermediate TP levels - with GBPJPY...
imo sterling strength/ USD weakness has opened up a great opp to get short vs the USD. Also, technically £YEN looks like it has some 400pips of downside in it available if the BOE do ease and weaken the currency (130.5). Shorting GBP$ at 1.33 opens up 250pips of easy downside profit assume the BOE deliver 25bps and 50bn of QE (the consensus) - £Yen at 1.35 opens...
RBA Cut the Cash rate to 1.50% by 25bps, the market has had a very subdued reaction though, barely falling 30pips from market. I still think there should be more downside here and into the mid/low 74xx before the full fade comes in - so luckily room for retails to get in, looks like the algos were having a day off today.
This is positive for any kiwi$ short...
Fed Dudley was speaking At A joint New York Fed, Indonesian Central Bank Seminar On Sunday evening when he left a mixed impression for the markets to digest - saying "it is premature to rule out an interest-rate increase this year" but then on the contrary saying "Raising Rates Prematurely Would Be Riskier Than Moving Slightly Too Late" and following up that...
Long EURCHF:
1. Having watched the 1.08 level closely post-brexit it certainly looks as if there is some FX intervention going on at the 1.08 handle - suspicions enforced even more as SNB President Jordan says FX intervention is on the cards should CHF move even higher/ Rate cut possible another 50bps.
2. Plus EUR vs CHF september rate expectations are skewed...
End of the bull run
Global Equity Indexes:
1. SPX/ Global Equity indexes in the past 2/3wks saw a post-brexit central bank easing induced rally, as many CB released dovish statements following the vote which spurred investor confidence in fresh easing.
- IMO much of the bull run was based on BOJ easing hopes, given the size of the economy (4th largest)...
SNB President T. Jordan comment highlights:
- If Needed, Can Cut Rates Further - 50bps to 1.25% possible until negative rates turn less effective
- Big Concern Over Significantly Overvalued CHF in 2016 risk-off dominated year
- CHF 3m Libor prices 80% chance of a 25bps cut (-0.75 to -1.00%) within 3 months (was only 40% before brexit)
- Low bond yields not...
BOJ Miss:
1. BOJ deliver one of the biggest misses in history (vs expectations/ pressure) - only increasing ETF purchases and dollar funding by apprx $60bn annual in total vs 10-20bps of Depo and LSP cuts + 5-20trn in QE increase + ETF increase.
*See attached post for in-depth detail on the BOJ situation and price action history/ Yen strength/ Safe havens*
...
BOJ - 3trn increase in annual ETF Purchases + $24bn increase in USD funding for banks
1. The BOJ on Friday delivered a shockingly poor package, imo they changed the snallest part of their current QQE programme.
2. What was interesting though was the markets reaction - immediately after the decision $Yen spiked higher then lower to 103 level but from then and...
