XAU/USD - Trendline Breakout (14.05.2025)The XAU/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 3321
2nd Resistance – 3364
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DXY
USD/JPY - Trendline Breakout (14.05.2025)The USD/JPY Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Trendline Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 145.34
2nd Support – 143.81
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USDCADHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on USDCAD?
This pair found support at the bottom of the channel and a key support zone, triggering the beginning of a bullish move.
We now expect the price to consolidate briefly within this support area, and then continue moving upward toward the specified targets.
Will this support hold and drive the next leg higher? Share your thoughts below!
Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
GBPCAD BULLISH OR BEARISH DETAILED ANALYSISGBPCAD is currently trading around the 1.85700 level, consolidating inside a well-defined bullish pennant on the 2-day chart. This pattern formation follows a strong impulsive rally from the 1.71000 region earlier this year, signaling that the pair is in a re-accumulation phase before its next leg higher. Price action is coiling tightly within converging trendlines, and recent volume spikes suggest increasing interest and momentum from the bulls, pointing toward a potential breakout to the upside.
On the fundamental front, the British pound is benefiting from rising wage inflation and a still-hawkish Bank of England tone, which keeps rate cut expectations muted compared to other G10 currencies. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar remains under pressure due to softening oil prices and weaker-than-expected domestic data. The BoC has also signaled it may start easing in the coming months if inflation continues to slow, making CAD less attractive relative to GBP.
Technically, a breakout above the pennant resistance around 1.8600–1.8650 with strong bullish volume would confirm the continuation of the prior uptrend. The projected target from this pattern sits near the 1.95700 area, aligning with previous major resistance and psychological round numbers. Momentum indicators are building to the upside, and price remains above all key moving averages on the higher timeframes, reinforcing the bullish outlook.
With volume confirming accumulation, a breakout from this bullish pennant could accelerate quickly as trend-following strategies kick in. GBPCAD is well-positioned to capture the upside, and the current structure offers an excellent risk-to-reward opportunity in favor of bulls. In the context of macro divergence between GBP strength and CAD softness, the 1.95700 target looks highly achievable in the coming weeks.
DXY Sell this rally. Bearish until end-of-year.The U.S. Dollar index (DXY) has been trading within a Channel Down since the September 26 2022 High and is currently on a medium-term Bearish Leg. The last 3 weeks however have been a short-term rebound (all 1W candles green), but the price is still below both the 1W MA200 (orang trend-line) and the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line).
This doesn't alter the bearish trend as this is not the first time we've seen this price action. More specifically, DXY also made a short-term rebound during the first Bearish Leg of the pattern and rebounded on January 30 2023 back to the 1W MA50. This delivered a strong rejection which eventually completed the Bearish Leg with one last round of selling to complete a -13.30% Bearish Leg in total.
Before that, we also saw the same pattern (also on 1W RSI terms) in 2020, when on August 31 2020 the price again had a short-term rebound only to resume the bearish trend and finish the sequence again at -13.40% from the top.
As a result, as long as the price remains (closes) below the 1W MA50, the last sell signal is given when the 1W RSI breaks above its MA (yellow trend-line) and then we can expect the Bearish Leg to complete a -13.30% decline with a 96.000 Target.
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Gold missing inverse relationship with DXYIn the earlier analysis, the expectation is for DXY to trade slightly lower to the round number level of 100.
With Gold's inverse relationship with the US Dollar, anticipating further downside for the DXY should mean that we expect to see some upside on XAUUSD.
However, the current price action on Gold is still signalling further downside.
The good thing is that the price is approaching the support area where the 3200 price level and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level align.
Look for a reaction in this area, for a possible rebound to the 3320 price level. Alternatively, if the support area is broken, there could be further downside to the 3000 price level.
DXY:Sharing of the Latest Trading StrategyAll the trading signals today have resulted in profits!!! Check it!!!👉👉👉
Today, the DXY rebounded after a decline. Trump's visit to the Middle East is expected to reach more agreements, and a rising tide of the US dollar is imminent. Technically, the daily - level band also shows a bullish signal. In terms of operation, one can go long near 100.5.
Trading Strategy:
buy@100.20-10050
TP:101.80-102.20
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Bullish bounce?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 100.37
1st Support: 99.93
1st Resistance: 102.02
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Slower Inflation Growth, Takes DXY lower.Overnight, the DXY traded lower, driven by 2 main factors.
1) The release of lower-than-expected CPI data at 2.3%
2) Rejection of the long-term bearish trendline and the area of confluence formed by the 61.8% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels from the longer term.
If the DXY breaks below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the shorter term, we could expect to see further downside, toward the target level of 100.
This round-number level would align with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the short-term bullish trendline.
DXY Dual Perspective: Smart Money OB Short vs. Mid-Term LongThis chart presents two perspectives:
My Perspective (Dipanshu - GreenFireForex):
Expecting a bearish reversal from the current Order Block (OB) between 101.9 – 103.2, possibly due to inefficiency and early liquidity sweep.
ChatGPT’s Refined Perspective:
OB refined to 102.4 – 103.0 zone, aligning with imbalance and previous H4 structure break. A rejection from there is more probable.
Target:
Both views expect a drop toward the Demand Zone at 96.4 – 96.3, with bullish reversal expected from that key support.
Let’s observe whether the DXY respects early inefficiency or reaches full OB.
Comment your bias below!
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CADCHF watch the drop!!Good day traders, I recently share an Idea on CADCHF and if you go back and see what was outlined and how I ended the description. I highlighted that price might manipulate higher but as long as the overall bias remains we still on!!
How I look at the markets is I like to cross reference different pairs and GBPCAD confirmed my bearish outlook and so did AUDCAD. Study this setup till Sellside liquidity 🙏🏽
$USIRYY - U.S Inflation Rate Unexpectedly Slows (April/2025)ECONOMICS:USIRYY
April/2025
source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
- The annual inflation rate in the US eased to 2.3% in April, the lowest since February 2021, from 2.4% in March and below forecasts of 2.4%.
Prices of gasoline fell at a faster pace and inflation also slowed for food and transportation.
Compared to the previous month, the CPI rose 0.2%, rebounding from a 0.1% fall in March but below forecasts of 0.3%.
Meanwhile, annual core inflation rate steadied at 2.8% as expected, holding at 2021-lows.
GBPUSD Brace for a Sharp Drop to 1.3000! Free signal!Hello everyone.
I want share my idea about GBPUSD.
The U.S.-China trade deal breakthrough has fueled USD strength, pressuring GBP/USD after a surge to 1.3330. BoE’s dovish stance, with a potential 25 bps rate cut priced in, contrasts with a hawkish Fed, favoring USD. Upcoming UK CPI and U.S. CPI data this week could drive volatility—soft UK inflation may weaken GBP, while high U.S. inflation could bolster USD further. UK wage growth (5.9%) offers GBP support, but weak PMI and employer sentiment cap gains. Watch U.S.-UK trade deal news for potential GBP upside.
With technical we can see last week we had some consolidation and this week started with high volatility and brake support. at the moment price testing resistance + 4h FVG.
Scenario 1 (Bearish – Primary View): Price rejects the 1.3200–1.3275 FVG/resistance zone and resumes its downtrend, targeting the next major support at 1.3000—a psychological and structural level. This aligns with USD strength from the trade deal and BoE’s dovish stance . Trade Setup: Short below 1.3200, target 1.3000, stop above 1.3300 (above FVG).
Scenario 2 (Bullish – Less Likely): Buyers break above the FVG (1.3275) and 1.3300, targeting 1.3350–1.3400. This would require a catalyst like soft U.S. CPI data weakening USD, but current fundamentals favor bears.
Trade Setup:
Entry below - 1.3190 (current price 1.32048) ensures confirmation of rejection.
Stop above - 1.3280 (above FVG) protects against a bullish breakout.
Target - I will follow trend with trail stop.
For collaboration text me private!
Always make your own research!!!
2 Charts in Monthly Time FrameThere’s a common misconception when it comes to the relationship between the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and Bitcoin — and it's time to take a deeper look.
While the short-term movements of DXY can create temporary pressure on Bitcoin, the broader correlation tells a different story. If you zoom out and analyze the larger structure, an interesting pattern begins to emerge.
Historically, when DXY enters a major rally within a wide-ranging diametric formation, Bitcoin doesn’t necessarily decline — in fact, it often follows the trend with a slight delay. This lag can vary between one to two months, but the eventual upward momentum in Bitcoin frequently aligns with DXY strength over extended periods.
So before drawing conclusions based on daily fluctuations, take a step back — compare the macro charts, connect the dots, and you'll start to see a bigger, more nuanced picture.
DXY Rebound or Reversal? All Eyes on the Bearish OB Zone! Analysis:
As anticipated, DXY has now swept the major weekly/monthly sell-side liquidity (SSL) at 99.58, tapping deep into a high-probability reversal zone. This aggressive liquidity raid was followed by a sharp bullish reaction—marking the first signs of potential re-accumulation or a relief rally.
Currently, price is pushing back toward a bearish order block (OB) that aligns with a dense cluster of confluences:
A weekly FVG (Fair Value Gap)
A monthly FVG that’s been previously respected
Major supply resistance from previous highs around 108.40–109.39
This confluence zone is critical.
📍 Two Likely Scenarios:
Rejection from OB Zone: If price respects the OB, expect continuation to the downside—possibly targeting a deeper structural shift and breaking below the recent SSL.
Breakthrough & Reclaim: If price breaks and closes strongly above the OB zone, it opens the door for a move toward 114.60, the next major daily buy-side liquidity.
🧠 Either outcome offers a significant macro play, especially for risk-sensitive pairs (i.e., AUD, NZD, Gold, or equities inversely correlated to USD strength). Keep in mind, DXY's movement is heavily influenced by macroeconomic events, so dollar strength or weakness can cascade across global markets.
Key Levels to Watch:
Support: 100.215 / 99.58
Resistance: 108.40 → 109.39 OB zone
Upper Target if invalidated: 114.60
⚠️ DYOR. Let price confirm before bias is committed.
GBPUSDHello traders.
Today's first signal comes from GBPUSD. To be honest, I don’t feel entirely confident about this trade — but I’m still taking it, trusting my system and strategy.
🔍 Criteria:
✔️ Timeframe: 15M
✔️ Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:1.50
✔️ Trade Direction: Buy
✔️ Entry Price: 1.32022
✔️ Take Profit: 1.32320
✔️ Stop Loss: 1.31824
🔔 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. It's a trade I’m taking based on my own system, shared purely for educational purposes.
📌 If you're also interested in systematic and data-driven trading strategies:
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US Dollar Index (DXY) – Bullish Setup in PlayThe market has spoken and it’s whispering a potential bullish breakout .
As seen in the chart, the US Dollar Index (DXY) recently broke out from a short-term consolidation zone after forming a solid base near the 99.00 region. Currently, it's retesting a minor support level (highlighted by the yellow horizontal line).
Key Observation:
Price is holding above this support zone with strength. If this level holds, I anticipate a continuation to the upside as marked by the white arrow.
Target: The next major resistance zone lies near the 103.00 area, where price previously reversed. This becomes the logical next stop if the bullish momentum continues.
What I’m Watching:
Reaction from the current support zone
Strength of buyers stepping in
Any fundamental catalysts from USD-related news/events
In trading, it's not about predicting, it's about preparing. This chart reflects a classic "break-and-retest" scenario often seen before major moves.
Let’s see how this plays out over the coming days.
Gold had Swept Lows and Filled Bullish Gaps! Reversal next?This is price action that I was patiently waiting for. Now that we have that sweep lows Im looking for signs price want to turn around. It can remain bearish for now. But Im expecting to see something clear by the time we get inside of the killzone.
EURUSD Tests Head and Shoulders Target Ahead of CPIIn line with the inverted head and shoulders formation seen on the DXY from its 2025 lows, EURUSD has completed a breakout of its own head and shoulders pattern, reaching the 1.1070 target.
With the 4H RSI rebounding from oversold territory, a bullish bounce for EURUSD appears likely toward the 1.1140 level.
A clean hold above this resistance could extend gains to 1.1270, 1.1380, 1.1430, and eventually to the 2025 high at 1.1570.
If dollar strength resumes and EURUSD falls back below 1.1070, downside levels to watch include 1.1000, 1.0920, and 1.0760.
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT