The dow bull market is over, the coming recession will cause the initial dip in the Dow which will correspond nicely with the upward lower bound trend and fibonacci retracement of around 22000. Then I'd expect a lower target of around the 50% retracement level of 16000 which will be at the height of the next US recession.
The S&P 500 Index has been a bit hard to read for beginners as the charts are giving bearish signals yet it continued to move up and break above certain strong resistance levels. As for The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJI), this one is telling us a different story, this chart is much easier to read.
When you look at the chart, you can clearly see lower...
The chart for the Dow Jones (DJI) is basically the same one as the S&P 500 (SPX). So needless to say, this one will crash as well.
My long term analysis for DJI is still valid, you can see it here:
This new crash that is incoming is just an extension of...
The Dow appears to be carving an Inverse H&S. The election result still has room to create risk-off knee jerk reactions intraday. I will take advantage of any drops, trading against the low of October 29th.
A daily closing below the spike low of October 11 would somewhat negate the pattern, although I will look to the candle structure before making a trade.
The week before last gave us a shooting star/doji. The following week resulted in a pull-back that has everyone scared.
For now, we held lower parallel support. However, I'm leaning on the prospect of more downside for now.
The markets are telling us something: there is clear concern over the mid-term elections. If Democrats win, I'm sure that would pour water...
In my last commentary I noted that the Euro could bounce. The Dollar has just broken significant support as I write. I have short EURUSD positions remaining, but I'm strongly hedged with a DXY short.
I'm also long Gold and Silver, as a counter-trend short Dollar play.
I also noted that political confusion concerning Trump could make the US markets 'choppy' -...
We are at predictable resistance in DJIA. Last Thursday saw the break of a rising wedge, but Friday offered little follow-through. We are now falling moderately in early Sunday trading (at the time of writing).
I was aiming for a test of trendline resistance within the purple box. We can still test this area; either way, I'm betting on a wholesale decline in...
The dow has been trading well within a rising wedge. Rising wedges in bull trends can be very good, or very bad. When price breaks up from a rising wedge, it can be very powerful.
DJI gave 3 entries in January. You had to be quick, but you are being generously rewarded.
The first was at the start of the year - easy breakout. The second was a small...
To me this is pretty simple, the Dow was provided with support by the 50 Moving Average and appreciating, but the Coppock curve is still negative so I would wait till the 20,700 make to buy. Also the ADX Green Line has finally crossed over representing a new trend change. So I would buy until the Trendline resistance.