December Live Cattle has been in a virtual free-fall since making contract highs back on September 19th. We’ve sold off nearly $7 since scoring the new high. To say it’s been a remarkable year for live cattle futures would be an understatement - we’ve made all time highs, and bucked bearish seasonal tendencies along the way. The strength observed across the...
CME: Live Cattle ( CME:LE1! ), Lean Hog ( CME:HE1! ) Last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that US inflation on food items was 5.7% in June, exactly half of its peak of 11.4% in August 2022. Food inflation is at its lowest level since November 2021. Under the sub-category “Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs” from Food-at-home, the BLS data shows...
This chart shows you everything you need to know about inflation. I was shopping yesterday and my steak cost $1/lb more than last month. If Powell doesn't go .5% today, this blow up to new ATH, and inflation will force his hand in July. Inflation isn't going away any time soon, look at gold, oil, etc. Traders are pumping commodities every time they pump the...
Title: Live Cattle Futures ( LE11 ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation Type: Bullish Rise Resistance: 159.175 Pivot: 157.875 Support: 155.375 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for LE1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. Expecting price to continue heading towards the...
Cattle – Weekly Continuous: The gray vertical bars represent the expiration month of labeled contract and have prices of each contract as of today labeled. The 2019 low has provided a pivot for a parallel uptrend line (highlighted in yellow) that has acted as a strong magnet since moving up off the covid crash low. Any of the lines could act as Support or...
Title: Live Cattle Futures ( LE1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Trend Type : Bullish rise Resistance : 147.900 Pivot: 144.275 Support : 141.100 Preferred Case: The price is moving in a bullish trend on the H4. Price fell below the Pivot at 144.275, but quickly recovered and closed above it. If the bullish momentum continues, we can expect price to move towards the...
This is 42 years of gold v cattle futures, i found it intersting, was cattle not the better play ?
Live cattle futures are on the verge of a technical breakout, something that we've been rooting for for some time now. The cash market remains firm, and the charts are getting more constructive. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical...
Feeder Cattle Technicals (August): Feeder cattle were able to catch a rally yesterday, thanks in part to the corn market collapsing following a “neutral” USDA report. Though it was nice to see a rally, the recent price action relative to the sharp decline in corn has been less than impressive. Not that it has to be a 1:1 correlation, but we would have expected to...
Thursday’s Slaughter is estimated at 124,000. 2,000 more than last week, and 7,000 more than the same week last year. Thursday’s Cutout Values Choice: 264.00, Down .88 from the previous day. Select: 240.57 Down .24 from the previous day. Choice/Select Spread: 23.43 5 Area Average Cattle Price Live Steer: 145.85 Live Heifer: 143.55 Dressed Steer: 234.01 Dressed...
Feeder Cattle Technicals (August): August feeder cattle futures broke below trendline support yesterday, which took prices into our 4-star support pocket, 171.45-172.40. All else held equal, this is a MUST HOLD pocket for the Bulls, a break and close below could open the door for a drop into the mid-160’s. We say “all else held equal” because tomorrow’s USDA...
Tuesday’s Slaughter is estimated at 126,000. Unchanged from last week and 5,000 more than the same week last year. Tuesday’s Cutout Values Choice: 267.14, Down 1.54 from the previous day. Select: 243.31, Down 1.93 from the previous day. Choice/Select Spread: 23.44 5 Area Average Cattle Price Live Steer: 137.00 Live Heifer: 147.20 Dressed Steer: N/A Dressed...
Mondays Slaughter is estimated at 125,000. 1,000 more than last week and 6,000 more than the same week last year. Monday's Cutout Values Choice: 268.68, Up 3.70 from the previous day. Select: 245.24, Up .22 from the previous day. Choice/Select Spread: 23.44 5 Area Average Cattle Price Live Steer: 144.55 Live Heifer: 141.88 Dressed Steer: 235.22 Dressed Heifer:...
Tuesday’s Slaughter is estimated at 126,000. 4,000 more than last week and 4,000 more than the same week last year. Tuesday’s Cutout Values Choice: 267.56, Up 1.06 from the previous day. Select: 246.70, Up .31 from the previous day. Choice/Select Spread: 20.86 5 Area Average Cattle Price Live Steer: N/A Live Heifer: N/A Dressed Steer: N/A Dressed Heifer:...
Feeder Cattle Commitments of Traders Update: Friday’s CoT report showed Managed Money were net buyers of 1,354 futures/options through June 14th. This shrinks their net short position to 3,553. Broken down that is 10,436 longs VS 13,989 shorts. Technicals (August): August feeder cattle futures were able to defend trend line support on Friday, the third time in...
Thursday's Slaughter is estimated at 126,000. Unchanged from last week, but 5,000 more than the same week last year. Thursday's Cutout Values Choice: 267.16, Down 1.06 from the previous day. Select 245.38, Down .30 from the previous day. Choice/Select Spread: 21.78 5 Area Average Cattle Price Live Steer: 144.10 Live Heifer: 143.22 Dressed Steer: 229.47 Dressed...
Feeder Cattle Technicals (August): August feeder cattle bulled back to trendline support (see chart below), which was defended into the close. Futures finished the session right near the 50-day moving average, 171.00. Grains were firm yesterday which may have added a headwind to feeders. Grains are firm again this morning which may keep that headwind in place on...
Feeder Cattle Technicals (August): As with live cattle, feeder cattle were choppy, trading on both sides of unchanged only to finish the session near unchanged. There is a gap left from the Monday morning open, that comes in from 173.75-174.025. We would not be surprised to see this gap get filled, especially if the corn market cannot find its footing. Above that...