We waited for it too long (almost 10 years, actually) and it happened. The Bank of England pushed interest rates up to the pre-Brexit levels. Over a year ago, the Bank made an emergency rate-cut from 0.5% to 0.25%. Ramsden and Cunliffe became the dissidents as expected.
We agree with those who think that today’s step did not mean the start of a gradual...
...Even though the meeting is not going to offer a firework.
The Kiwi lost almost 3 figures in the past two weeks and finally found a bottom. At least, it seems the pair has a chance to start the recovery. The Kiwi’s reaction to the employment data for the third quarter was enthusiastic. And it’s not surprising: the employment rate grew by 4.2% y-o-y. The...
The Bank of Japan did not deliver. We all knew it, and yet we expected a miracle. The regulator did not change its stance and left its massive monetary stimulus program on hold.
To the markets’ surprise, it was not an overwhelming consensus. There was one dissident – Goshi Takaoka – who voted against the decision. Anyways, the results were JPY-positive, but the...
The euro had little time to get over the recent slumps provoked by dovish ECB and strong US data. On Friday, EUR/USD slid far below the 1.16 mark, but euro-bulls are trying hard to regain some ground.
The Catalan crisis is still a euro-negative factor but, as a rule, the impact of such events is usually short term. Today’s US data was quite solid and reflected...
Yesterday’s turmoil provoked by ECB seems to fade away. Some of the Council’s members – Knot, Lautenschläger, Weidmann and Coeure - commented they were not happy with the decision. Villeroy added that the central bank made "essential step" to end QE. It will give the euro some time to take a breather.
The US dollar is in a good shape today, and it is higher...
It has been all about ECB these days. The markets were ready to catch any signal from the regulator about the tapering. Actually, the really important thing is not today’s meeting results, but the timing of the next ECB’s rate hike. We don’t expect this until the springtime of 2019.
The appreciation of the euro is the last thing that ECB wants, so Draghi should...
The Aussie marked the fourth day of falling. Actually, that is what usually happens when the CPI Index of a country falls instead of growing. Especially if the data comes far below central bank’s expectations of 2-3%.
In fact, AUD/USD has been losing its positions since September. But the traders think there is still a good chance of a rate hike from RBA taking...
While all euro pairs are waiting for the ECB meeting on Thursday, which will unlikely impress the EUR, the Antipodes are losing their positions. The strongest pair for today seems to be EUR/USD, but the bulls are still favouring the USD. Yet there is still some kind of nervousness since the markets are waiting for the announcement of a new Fed Chief this week....
Japanese general elections took place on Sunday. According to exit polls, PM Abe’s party is going to celebrate the victory. These were not good news for the Yen, definitely. This means the Central Bank will continue its ultra-easy monetary policy. And, indeed, the government is going to hasten the process of Abenomics.
It is not surprising USD/JPY opened with a...
It’s getting more and more difficult to predict the dynamics of oil prices. The asset does everything but follows the logic. The black gold started the day at the mid-57.00 area but during the European morning started sinking.
Everything is fine in terms of the fundamentals. OPEC and its allies will probably extend their collective cuts beyond March 2018. US...
New Zealand finally made it. After more than three weeks of blandishments, NZ First leader, Winston Peters, made his choice and announced a coalition government with the NZ Labor Party.
NZD has already been under some pressure since the 25th of September when the markets opened with a gap lower on the day after elections.
During the European morning today,...
Yesterday USD/JPY hardly gave any signs of life. The pair touched 112.47 high, but finished the day back around the open levels. Both Japanese calendar and US docket failed to impress the market.
On Monday, USD weakness sent USD/JPY to the 3-week lows. Anyways, USD still has its three trumps – rates, tax reform and the next Fed chairman.
Trump may announce the...
Despite quite hawkish commentaries by Mark Carney, GBP/USD started falling. What's wrong with the pound?
The UK CPI index matched estimates at 3.0% yoy and 0.3% mom. Core inflation index, excluding food and energy, came in at 2.7% yoy. This data has not impressed the markets. However, GBP/USD made a good move touching today’s highs at 1.3280, but later retreated...
Oil broke higher to open the week with a gap. During the weekend the governmental forces of Iraq entered the city of Kiruk and took under control minefields in the region. The disputed city of Kirkuk has always been a ‘bingo’ for the Kurdish region. They regarded it as an integral part of Kurdistan. But Bagdad regards it with similar intensity. Kirkuk has always...
The dollar got up on the wrong side of the bed. Its last chance is the CPI release.
Let’s be honest: even the positive data could hardly help USD to move to the green zone this week. It is not surprising. Trump’s tax reform has proven to be just a distraction, as expected. And the mystery around the next Fed Chair has also disappointed the USD bulls.
Although...
“Brexit talks have reached deadlock”, told Barnier today.
These are probably the last words one wants to hear when discussing any negotiations.
At the beginning of the day, GBP/USD advanced to 1.3265. But, no news on Brexit negotiations is bad news for the Pound. The British currency plummeted 100-pips and now is struggling near the support area at 1.3130. The...
The key event for today is the FOMC minutes. The markets have already priced in the rate hike before the year-end. Under these circumstances, the traders will be very interested in the central bank's stance over the coming months.
FYI, in the last meeting 12 of 16 FOMC’s members were ready for at least one more rate hike in 2017.
The Fed will probably discuss...
USD started its fall today at the end of the Asian session. There were no specific fundamentals behind the pull-back. The exhaustion of the bulls and the plunge of the treasury yields did their modest bit.
Besides, the risk-aversion triggered by North Korea that declared its possession of ballistic missile that would be able to reach the US territory soon.
EUR...
