Based on analysis from last night, I am looking for an intraday momentum trade to the downside. We had a failed attempt by the bulls to push higher on the lower timeframes, which gave me confirmation for the trade. This is a 1:3RR on the 5 min timeframe. Let's see what happens.
GBP/USD May fall 100+ pips
Insight - Price is maintaining the downwards trend line. Resistance at 1.2237, support at 1.1996 has broken the monthly upwards trend line and is now approaching the downward trend line that supports the monthly descending channel, which could indicate further downside.
Intraday - 4H
Sell or Below 1.1996
GBPUSD has now reached the defending trendline on the 1hr/4hr lower highs.
I have a Fibonacci Retracement cluster in this zone with the 0.618 and 0.786 levels providing a good potential resistance. There is also the descending trendline here and previous support zone.
Stop loss is 45pips above the current highs.
I am targeting previous lows for profit taking...
We could be looking at a retest of the trend-line on this pair, but I do believe it has the potential to fall further to the 1.24000 area. Especially after the drop the US Dollar took last week, it is due some buying control back which may push this pair down further.
after broken channel up last week, I think cable will drop, waiting for retest at descending trenline, potential head and shoulders forming at the chart, support at 1.129100 potensial downside target for the next week
RSI bearish divergence illustrates price exhaustion, bearish reversal.
Strong resistance around 1.3000 psychological level .
Rejected 50 EMA on the daily timeframe.
Consolidation of price since reaching this upper end of the downwards parallel channel.
100 pips target 50 pips stop.
Nice looking cypher setup for the down side now, I would of like price to test the 618 like my previous post with Euro/Usd but it has formed a bearish pattern inside our zone, Nice gains to be had in this short... Also in the long and then the short again! All should offer a minimum of 3-1 RR.
Cable breaking out of range and closed the week above prior high suggest the move up is not done yet.
How high can cable go before a recovery / continuation down?
1.3000 Why? Because its the yearly central pivot point and look left its also a gap where price accelerated lower.
The conservative target is around 1.2550. The more aggressive target is back to...
Follow the pre-Brexit into current price/action gives you a little bit more recovery, say 1.30, and then another 15c crash as we hit hard Brexit before March 2017. Just a fractal - the fundamentals have to happen as well!
This does NOT conflict with my short-term long post.