See chart for fundamental and technical analysis. I have given a timeline of Brexit events and the reasoning for its effects on the Pound Sterling. The combination of technical analysis and a strong likelihood of a Conservative landslide (Soft Brexit) should see the GBP surge, and hopefully see GBP recover to its pre-Brexit highs.
Inverse H&S pattern in play on daily time frame.
Looking at monthly time frame GBPUSD has done too much in to short a time i.e. seems oversold so this is likely to be the rebound
Although not shown on chart 38.2 fib level lies at approx 1.31
Entry is placed at the 1.264 which will likely occur on the next pullback following the break of the neckline
The pound seems to be in a very large flag pattern, but a mini triangle pattern, so this brings about the perfect swing trade,the 200 MA will provide resistance and so thats the stop-loss, but the short is when the Pound drops below the 100 MA till the lower support trendline.
GBPUSD ranging between well tested support and resistance levels at 1.215 and 1.26.
Based on existing uncertainty surrounding Brexit, and fears of 'Trump Rally' reversal I hesitate to predict the trend going forward, but as 'Brexit' appears to be at least partially priced in, I'm more comfortable buying below support, with a tight SL, and TP at 1.26. This...
GBPUSD is finding difficulty extending the bounce from the 1.1450 low of October, with fresh sellers appearing just beneath the 1.2795 low of July and 1.2805/10 Fibonacci retracements.
Prices are settling into consolidation, as studies turn mixed, but bearish background studies are intact, suggesting fresh downside risks in the coming months. A close below 1.2200...
GBPUSD broke out of the upside trend line and the move down has stalled within previous structure.
Price now must close below 1.122000 to confirm further downward bias.
With the Supreme Court ruling on if the British Parliment must vote on a deal to leave the EU due mid-Jan we may see price trade sideways until the verdict is delivered.
Follow the pre-Brexit into current price/action gives you a little bit more recovery, say 1.30, and then another 15c crash as we hit hard Brexit before March 2017. Just a fractal - the fundamentals have to happen as well!
This does NOT conflict with my short-term long post.
Potential reversal at major post-brexit support, offering very good risk reward ratio. Oscillators showing oversold, and candlestick patterns forming.
I have placed stop losses below the lowest structure level, and take profit levels below major resistance levels
1) A failed head and shoulders pattern @ key daily resistance @ 0.86002
2) Price has broken the 0.86002 zone + counter trend line
3) Expecting a pull back from the H4 Resistance zone @ 0.86919 zone. ( opportunity for short term shorts)
and retest of the counter trend line + now support zone @ 0.86002
for longs towards 0.87315.
4) Upside target @ 0.87315 @ daily...
1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) GBPNZD has a cumulative probability of a =>6th day lower at 0.99%, hence there is a implied 99% chance of reversal on the daily.
2. Also we see the Z-Score for, Monthly, 3m and 2wk all above 1.5SD - with 1m heavily over sold at -2SD.
3. Fundamentally Sterling looks a little...