Back in November of 2022 I wrote about using the HY-IG spread as a potential indicator of 'risk on' vs. 'risk off' sentiment and I will insert that below for readers trying to understand how this spread differential can be utilized. Subsequently I will explain what I currently see emerging on the above chart with the addition of both the RSI and correlation...
What is moving this week? Our weekly eyeball into the different markets. Interest rates likely to be breaking its all time high again, get ready for another volatile month ahead. Difference between yield and interest rate: Borrowers take reference from interest rates and lenders take reference on the yield. Interest rates and yield moves in tandem. Minimum...
This chart is crude and only correlates most of the time, but it does stand to reason based on the macro outlook we are staring down the barrel of a sizeable market crash. Now the 3 lines were 2 years after the red circles. That means the bottom is likely at the end of 2023 to 2024. The best way to play this is cash, but deflationary bets might also work. Use...
Part 2 This is the second part of the macro analysis series. In this part we'll focus on analyzing the current situation around the US bond market and the US dollar, while trying to map out the future depending on how the Fed and the economy move. You can find the rest of the analysis on the links down below. After going in depth about interest rates, the USD,...
So in conclusion, with the merals issue, supply issue, housing issue, inflation issue, investors heads in the sand issue, tech issue, incompetent leaders (all of them) issue and FED issue. This chart being a fraction of a fraction of a percent from inversion in 10-7 and already inverted in 30-20 makes more sense then the random PPT rally an hour before close...
Note: FEEVRWS is only meant to be a analysis and early warning system, and is in no way a substitute for your regular work. Please do your own due diligence and if needed, consult a trusted professional. Today we will be looking at economic correlations and why bonds are moving the way they are. As of right now the 10y and 7y are a quarter of a quarter of a...
Note: FEEVRWS is only meant to be a analysis and early warning system, and is in no way a substitute for your regular work. Please do your own due diligence and if needed, consult a trusted professional. Before I get into this I urge everyone who sees this chart to back track to the .com bubble on this chart, then move up to 08, then check out pre lock...
Not much to say here. In my honest opinion, Bonds are on watch. We could very clearly see an inversion here. Especially if the Fed raises rate or even enters QT.
There is a classic saying that credit markets tend to lead equity markets. The rationale is that credit investors are solely more concerned about downside risk (as they worry whether coupons will be paid and whether they will get their principal back at maturity) and measure risks and determine spreads - over the risk free/benchmark rate - by factoring in the...
In this chart, I find it important to (as an economist) monitor treasuries and bonds, luckily Tradingview has us covered there. The next few charts will be some economic correlations so we can better understand the economy before I get into the meat and potatoes of this system . As you can see, bonds and treasuries are dropping which indicates selling. Big name...
Hey tradomaniacs, The market is seriously playing games here! 🙈 The blast of yields can not be sustainable as this is going to be a be a thorn in Powells flesh. Why is that? Basically because rising yields will "raise the price of" debts! First of all, this is a BET against the FED and looks like TEST. As often explained, YIELDS are currently rising...
Please be on the lookout of a TLT breakout, due to upcoming insolvencies that next year looks to bring, I feel like we going for a blow -off type pattern pretty soon on the S&P500. Go BONDS
AUD bond yields have been declining relative to that of NZD. Price is trending downwards nicely to reflect the bond yields but price is resting towards the monthly lows that could provide a strong support. we are seeing a maxed positioning in AUD sentiments but the seasonal forecast may defy the bearish play. would consider a strong sell if price can break below...
In earlier published idea, I indicated that corporate spreads would widen and that indexes (and lower quality corporate bonds) heavily invested in corporate high-yield bonds would suffer. This has since occurred, and will continue.
With inflation rearing its head of late, and sectors of the economy prone to deteriorate due to coronavirus, narrow junk bond spreads will likely widen - pushing down the prices of high yield bonds.
10's minus 03 Mo's Reinversion of Sovereign Debt Yield Curve 19:34:22 (UTC) Thu Jan 30, 2020
TLT is a 20+ year bond ETF that made strong highs throughout the rate-cutting cycle and rightfully so. The inversion of bonds vs the equity market has caused bond yields to drop and because of that since the price of bonds is directly inversely correlated to their yields, prices in TLT and other bonds have been increasing. The low rates have come to a halt as the...