After a quiet start to the week in markets, Friday’s US session saw risk come alive. A poor US ISM manufacturing at 47.8 – notable in the new orders and employment sub-components – was married with comments from Fed members Lorie Logan and Chris Waller, in turn promoting a strong rally in US Treasuries, with additional rate cuts being priced through 2024.
The...
On the week we learnt that the UK and Japan are in a technical recession, although this meant little to markets and perhaps the bigger issue in Japan was the steady stream of pushback from key Japanese officials on recent JPY strength.
US retail sales fell 0.80% in Jan, a sinister turn when both US CPI and PPI were far hotter than expected, putting us on notice...
Time: Tuesday at 14:30 AEDT
With the Fed, ECB and BoE now having offered their guidance on policy and all largely pushing back on the pricing of imminent cuts, it’s the RBA who steps up as a risk event for traders on Tuesday.
Like the aforementioned central banks, the timing and the extent of RBA rate cuts are the subject of much debate among local market...
Three positions taken last week, two breakevens and one loss. Great trades nonetheless, two structures I would take over and over again with the EURUSD position being on the higher risk side of things. Risk management plan stuck to, frequency is picking up just in the first month of the year as expected. Trade safe and responsible
Aus Q4 CPI came in at 4.1% yoy, with the trimmed mean measure at 4.2% yoy – both were nicely below the economist's median forecast, and importantly below the RBA’s own forecasts of 4.5% for both metrics.
We also saw the more timely monthly (December) CPI print coming in at 3.4%; a 90bp improvement – and just 40bp away from the 2-3% target band.
Next week’s...
While the AUS200 revisits the all-time highs set in Aug 2021, the index absorbs a positive mix of sentiment towards global risk, as well as local factors, and many question if this time around we see the illustrious bullish break the bulls are positioned for. While global macro issues remain paramount, one catalyst to look towards is ASX200 1H24 earnings, with...
Looking at the weekly chart, bulls may have something to worry about. The market is yet to even test 7500 let alone break above it, and each time it has tried (and failed) to do so, the ASX has fallen by double digits in percentage terms.
A bearish engulfing candle formed in the first week of the year after once again faltering at those cycle highs. And if we're...
CAPITALCOM:AU200 chart mapping/analysis.
ASX following US market lead rallying into ~7000 psychological level (50% Fib) & descending trend-line (light blue dotted) confluence zone.
A Traders’ Playbook; Buying risk when its darkest
Equities continue to find few friends and reviewing so many of the daily and weekly set-ups in our core equity indices, standing in front of the move and countering seems a low probability outcome at this juncture.
The China CN50 and AUS200 look particularly weak, while EU equity markets are in steep decline,...
I've been trading since 2003.
And if you're a position (swing trader , medium term) trader, you'll know there comes a time where the markets flow in a difficult range...
There are two types of markets when it comes to strategies.
Favourable and Unfavourable.
Right now, I don't mean to speak for everyone else, but I believe the markets are in an unfavourable...
Aussie Volatility Index wreaking havoc on ASX.
XJO ~6500 range & XVI ~20 range marked out as area(s) of interest for potential supply/demand dynamics, TBC.
Last week was some ride and I feel like I’ve aged 10 years, but what have we learnt?
The Fed and the ECB are almost done tightening and market pricing shows this front and centre. In the case of the US, core PCE and the Employment Cost Index (ECI) showed us that price pressures and wages are abating. However, the US Q2 GDP print grew at an above-trend pace (at...
The RBA has now ‘surprised’ the market with 2 back-to-back rate hikes, which were both priced at a 30% probability or below. Essentially, the RBA has injected a level of policy uncertainty greater than any other G10 central bank.
We also see its hawkish forward guidance maintained with “some further tightening of monetary policy may be required”. So, the...
I suspect it could be a case of now or never for ASX bulls.
Whilst it suffered its worst day in 9-weeks on Thursday, this could be part of an ABC correction and the 200-day MA is nearby as a probably support level, even if it breaks lower today. Futures markets shows heavy volume occurred around yesterday's lows (bears piled in around the lows) yet sentiment...
