My probability estimate for the south is 51% on a 12H to 8H time frame. My estimate is based on my own analysis and perspective.
I changed my mind based on new evidence and what I think is a more robust perspective.
It would be great to hear other perspectives. That's how we learn. Share and learn. I'm not here to be right or to make predictions etc.
Is finding your 'true friend' a psychological issue? Absolutely! We normally think of 'friends' as people - and that can be something of a mistake (based on personal experience), as I explain.
Your true friend in trading is right there hidden in the backdrop behind the candles - and that's why you see no candles in the screencast.
So I'm saying, find the tools...
I've not seen this sort of stuff before on Tradingview, so I do apologise if everybody knows about it.
I show how I used both a microtrend change on a 15 min time frame and a macrotrend position to get a suitable entry position on Japan225. Note carefully, that this is not a 'win'. I totally expect to lose but if that happens the loss will be minimal. If however...
Trend following is not easy because:
1. Finding trends requires a high level of attention to detail.
2. Removing disbelief as an emotional response.
3. Having lots of patience.
I explain a few difficulties I've encountered.
for a long time nearly 400 days Bitcoin couldnt break the Resistance shown in the chart
every time it hits it it fall more and more
from 22 Mar to 26 of Apr we will see some important moves in bitcoin that will decide the bitcoin trend in the next 9 month
Dont be so happy from the recent Alt coin moves and be aware of Bitcoin
as we all know any analytics...
This educational post shows how exploiting trends can deliver profits in the long term, by living for the big trends. This is a no-targets system that uses the ATR. Trend switches define entry positions and the markets decide exit positions. Scaling-in of position sizes is an advanced higher risk technique. Those lacking experience and with small account sizes...
Macroeconomic trends are represented in higher time frame charts. The trend and price analyses held secret opportunities for traders in lower time frames. I explain how I assessed the probabilities in my own unique methodology.
I compare the situation at 01/01/2019 with a few days previously (see video 4 min mark in screencast below). I've extracted value in this experience because this scenario and one similar in ETHUSD, leads me to a better confidence about spotting trend weaknesses and getting earlier on trend changes. I focus on curves in relation to trend-change indicators....
In my previous screencast of 17th November, below all this text, is the story of someone (not from Tradingview) messaging me to ask if NVDA was good to buy. They were disappointed when I simply said "No".
In the current screencast I follow up on how the FOMO bulls were punished for attempting to hunt a gap too early.
This screencast is not advice. I am not...
In this screencast I show how I interpreted the bull run on the daily and how I entered on a 30 min time frame.
Everybody (almost) went 'Wooohoooo!" when Trump made announcements that trade war with China was on hold. There was also the Wooohooo thing when Powell made his politically correct statement, which actually didn't say anything about halting interest...
Apple - has had to obey the laws of 'physics'. Basically the higher you go the harder you fall.
People are of course living on hope - as you would if in a plane crash (by way of analogy only).
I'm afraid the outlook isn't pretty - and that's not what people want to hear about. People need hope. Apologies. I only provide reality. I say what's on the charts....
In this screencast I show how waiting for a key position in the market is good idea. As I always say, 'Stalk 90% trade 10%'.
The CAD - often referred to as 'the Loonie' (not by me) has been in some trouble across many currency pairs. I'm not interested 'why'. All I care is where the trend is going and key areas of opportunity and probability.
As strange as it...
The US-Dollar got hammered on most pairs in the last day or two. Day traders may have suffered or gained.
The US-Dollar index shows what happened. On the Daily time frame US-Dollar is still pretty bullish, so stay tuned on lower time frames.
In the screencast I show two possible head and shoulder patterns - with a degree of uncertainty.
The bigger issues are signs of a trend change and momentum developing for the south. So, it doesn't matter at this stage where the base of the head and shoulders is. It is a no-loss position I'm in at the moment.
I explain in the screencast why I think 'crash' is an irrelevant issue.
It is impossible to know whether 'we're in a crash' because a crash can only be discovered well into into it or after it has happened.
True trend-followers will appreciate that all one can do is find a suitable trend - and follow it. Simple but I didn't say it was easy. In fact I will...
Trends are not easy to spot when they're developing. I'm sure I looked at AUDCAD many times across several time frames in last 80 days. Now I'm seeing the trend on 12H better, having missed the boat several times! Jeeez this is so annoying!
I suspect that several times I must have thought, "Nah.. it's about to reverse soon." - and just ignored it very swiftly....
In this screencast I'm looking both at the daily and 4H time frames on the JP225USD.
The daily is into a potential reversal zone based on my methodology.
The 4H is probably into a PRZ based on an ABCD pattern.
Stay lively - stalk carefully. :))