jackjamesholmes
Long

XRPUSD Triangle & Fib confluence

BITSTAMP:XRPUSD   Ripple / U.S. Dollar
XRPUSD has been consolidating in a triangle since the ATH             . It is now nearing the point of the triangle and I expect it to break to the upside. I am basing this on the strength of the previous bounces when price has hit the bottom of the triangle and the fact that the prevailing trend is very bullish .

The point of the triangle corresponds with a level of triple confluence on the fibs, so this will act either as strong support or resistance. A bounce or breakdown through that level is likely to be important. If it exits the top of the triangle there is another, larger triangle to consolidate within. I expect it will retrace then make an impulsive, bullish wave.

I invite any comments,

Jack
Comment: That one didn't last long. The gameplan is changed, looking for a bounce at 1.889, where there was a previous, sharp bounce and there is a 0.382 fib retracement of the bullish wave dating back to 20th December
Comment: 1.889 is also the 0.786 extension of wave A what is now looking like an ABC correction from the ATH
Comment: So this is the new view. There are two levels where the bulls could return. First is 1.889 as stated above because of the 0.786 extension level of AB, second is 1.66150 which would be 100% extension level of AB, and therefore AB=CD. Let's see how price reacts now there has been a minor bounce from 1.889

Comment: Rough night! I do think the correction is complete now as we have seen a CD exceed the length of AB. I need to get to a laptop to measure the exact extension.
Trade active: The bounce this time has come in near enough to the AB=CD equality to make me believe the correction is complete, so I am opening a long trade here. Looking for a 5 wave impulsive move, conservatively targeting the ATH, this could take a while to work out as I expect a lot of consolidation on the way.

Comment: Some real pressure through the night but our lower extension level once again proved strong enough to support. I have zoomed in a bit here to highlight divergence which suggests that price is beginning to reverse out of the downtrend and will hopefully bounce. This has been created using an OBV oscillator created by @LazyBear. I have also used Heikin Ashi as these seem to work a bit better with the oscillator.

Comment: Boom! Broken out of the first, strong bearish trend line. Stalling at the second bearish trend line but the strength of the move and all the technicals described above make me optimistic. Above these bearish trend lines I suspect there are quite a lot of buy orders and stops on short positions, which would accelerate the move.

Comment: ps that contact with the second bearish trend line is also hitting the fib confluence level highlighted in the original idea, so could be a tough obstacle.
Comment: Some more ideas this morning, still looking for a break of the second bearish trend line to really set this idea off. There is a potential for a couple of inverse head and shoulders patterns to come in to play, this is the optimistic view as, if you really look, I am pretty sure you can spot a classic head and shoulders which would precede further downside. Let's hope it goes up...

Comment: Double boom! Price broke the second bearish trend line! The inverse head and shoulders patterns don't seem to be of any consequence whatsoever so we'll ignore those now. This signifies a breakthrough in terms of getting out of the downward trend, but we are certainly not in an uptrend yet, so don't get too excited. I will spend a bit more time looking at what obstacles lie in our way when I have some time.




Comment: Apologies, fat finger double chart incident!
Comment: Haven't been able to follow through on the break of the downtrend yet but the bearish trend line is now acting as support, which again shows progress. Patience is key!
Comment: Just to prove the point, ok, price has moved a fair way from the arrows showing where we want it to go, but it is (so far) being nicely supported by the trend line, which is a significant step towards where we want to be. We still need a lot more help from the bulls though.

Comment: XRP getting no love from the bulls! I am going to hold on to the position I opened at 1.9 as I believe it is a decent long-term price to hold at. I aim to be more of a trader than an investor so I am disappointed to have quite a big bit of red on this position.

The move from the ATH now looks more impulsive than corrective, which is a worry, I need to spend some time with this one and work out what technical indications might prove useful.
Comment: Ok, so, if we keep the faith that this is an ABC correction albeit a very big one - wave C has *exactly* hit and been supported by the 0.618 extension of wave A. This is a good sign (I'm an optimist) as that is a significant extension level and there's no reason to believe it can't bounce from there. It could definitely go a lot lower i.e. the 100% extension level which is at just under 0.50... Let's all hope it doesn't do that then!

Comment: And now it's bounced off 0.786. Don't believe anyone who says technical levels don't apply to crypto, even in this crazy volatile time it is responding precisely to fibs.

Given what going to the 100% extension means, I am hopeful and have a reasonable amount of faith that the 0.786 level is the bottom. I still have my long position open at 1.9

Comment: Another very precise bounce off the 0.786 extension level, going to show that technicals do work with cryptos, and now it's racing back up! Price has once again broken above the old bearish trendline which is a great sign. I'm going to keep my position open but I'll close this idea now as we are so far removed from the original idea, I will start up a new idea once I feel I've got my head round where we are and where we're going.
It bounced back exactly at 1.9 USD. Let's see if it is really going to 2.8 USD now!! If it keeps going up it should meet the second bearish line at 2.2 USD circa
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jackjamesholmes Nellatheforeigner
Indeed @Nellatheforeigner, the technicals seem to be working well so far, hopefully we don't get any market news factors changing the game again (unless it's a positive change). It may spend a bit more time consolidating in the space between 1.9 and the bearish trend line but I think (hope) the market is with us
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Very good. I hadn't considered the second bearish trend line. Lets see if it can break it.
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@Banners, I'm glad I spotted it as otherwise I'd be sitting here shouting "why isn't it going up more!"
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Great analysis @jackjamesholmes - will follow this closely.

Thanks!
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Thanks @pacolotto, we hit quite a few different technicals here and had to adjust but I'm pretty confident it's coming together now
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Don't get me wrong: your call at 1,89 was great, but I really don't see how you made that call with the fib levels set in your analysis. Never saw someone setting the 100 percent fib level like somewhere below the ATH
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jackjamesholmes treirabigereugen
@treirabigereugen, it's a fib extension, not a normal retracement, so it plots the fib levels for the move from A to B, but starting from B, to find an endpoint for C. 0.786 is a significant fib extension for C to end at, although, as stated above, a stronger pattern would be AB=CD, or the 100% fib extension.

So, there you go, hopefully now you see!
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In addition to that:

-Where do you see a strong bounce at 1,89?
-Where do you see a bullish wave at 20th december?
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jackjamesholmes treirabigereugen
@treirabigereugen, strong bounce at the swing low on 8th Jan, the candle has a very long wick at the bottom.
The bullish wave which started at 20th December obviously requires more history on the chart. Take a look at a chart which includes that data and hopefully it is obvious.
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