MachineDaena
Long

XRPUSD Ambulance-Zone & Rocket-Zone next 14-days.Annual jolt due

BITFINEX:XRPUSD   Ripple / U.S. Dollar
I've spent a lot of time in the past year understanding TA and crypto. I'm by no means an expert and of course offer no trading advice. I own XRP and am very long on XRP for fundamental reasons; I've some good experience tracking XRP activities and trends through the past year. That said, trading in and out of crypto currencies does present some portfolio growth opportunities, and therefore here's my input.

This would be my first trade analysis published, showing trends for XRPUSD since the parabolic late 2017, and into the correction during 2018.

Let's talk about Ambulance-Zones, using the 2-hours charts; top trend lines in green itemise the best-case top tend line, then bottom trend lines in red itemise worst case using historical charting, this for longer term activity, and then for more short-term support with the right-most horizontals. The analysis shows that between 8th March today, and 20th March in two weeks, is likely to be a critical time for XRP during it's consolidation period after the heavy (anticipated) correction. Top and bottom tend lines show a convergence towards a cross-over price at $0.88 on 20th March. During this period two week period, the Ambulance-Zone, where price is likely to stutter representing some key buying opportunities, highlighted as a red box, would show a heavy support at between $0.51 - 0.60; the closer to 20th of March, the closer to $0.51 the price is likely to go (worst case on trend). Worth noting here the most recent major low-point at $0.57 on 6th             Feb. However, within this Ambulance-Zone period, there is a secondary support line that people may want to consider buying at, that runs across the Ambulance-Zone at $0.70 - 0.55; again, the closer to 20th of March, the more likely the price hits the bottom end of this range.

XRP is currently trading as over-sold, on the RSIs and the MACD for 12 and 26 runs favourable for a healthy period from today 8th, until around the 12th / 13th March where MACDs shall cross back above 0-line favourable to sell-orders and a down-turn. I expect a major bear-run between 14th and 16th March meaning those who are waiting for a jolt, could be in for some nice Easter bargains.

It's interesting that the convergence on 20th March, and it's preceding Ambulance-Zone, coincides with a few other major trends - 1) Firstly the market sentiment that the correction is not quite over yet, and 2) Also that every year for the past 5-years, (similar to Jan each year) the market has taken a significant drop. If you look back to the annual charts in March and April, it's clear to see a downward trend that begins around the 9-18th March, and goes on for between 7-45 days (spending on which year you refer to). The downtrends have been as small as 9% reduction, and as large as 83% reduction, but it's definitely happened each year.

So taking this into context, it's highly likely that the market is going to take a sharp drop during the Ambulance-Zone, where sentiment in the market could flip to "Correction over".

Keep an eye out for the Rocket-Zone shown as the green-shaded square. If there is low trade volume for a period of 2-3 days in the run up to the 16th March, that implies a continuation of a clear symmetrical converging-triangle pattern, the market is content with it's trading position and that would generally be bullish , particularly if there exists a positive piece of XRP news brought to market by Ripple. If this happens, there is likely to be some heavy volume . If the price stays within the triangular RED/GREEN price zone (roughly $0.82 - 0.96, during 16th - 20th March), in particular, and IF there has been a 9-25% drop in price in the week preceding that (in keeping with the past three years market jolts at this time of year), then confidence in the upside during the Rocket-Zone will ensue. Conversely, symmetrical converging triangle patterns can be negative, however that is likely to be contingent to the trading activity in the days before it.
Comment: UPDATE: in the past 24 hours the markets have predictably dropped somewhat, within the Ambulance-Zone, and below the top and bottom (green and red) convergence towards the crossover target price at $0.88 on the 20th March.

This has a few implications; firstly there's now a lower trend line, a few days sooner than expected, which may mean the convergence back up to $0.88 will take a few more days (potentially first week of April, also in keeping with previous years dips in March), secondly that it's now highly likely the two lower target-lines (shown in RED, descending in parallel to each other) will see some action. This becomes a pretty clear target zone for buying opportunities. So a descending target buy price of $0.68 - $0.58 today (9th March) and dropping steadily for the coming nine days towards a range of $0.58 - 0.49 on the 18th March.

It's important to note that any jolt in price towards this 11-day Ambulance-Zone, $0.19 target-gap (between upper and lower parallel limits above) will almost certainly be a momentary dive downwards, much like the 5th Feb 2018 drop, where the price dropped from a high of $0.75 down to $0.56 (a similar sized drop as I am proposing here, of $0.19). In this case, the drop had completed it's descend within just a 24 hour period. The best buying opportunity below $0.60 was only available for 4-6 hours.

If you're planning on buying during this expected drop, best to get the limit orders in early!

Happy trading.
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