XBTUSD BTCUSD short trade potential
Scenario 1: Double bottom down to approx 8500 (1D 200 EMA)
Price is heading upwards but RSI on the 4H chart is becoming exhausted as it approaches 50 from below, which likely corresponds to top of the yellow fib channel on my chart. There is also significant resistance at 12.5, which coincides with the top of the yellow fib channel. I have highlighted the area where i think the retrace from 12.5 to 8.5 should begin.
Scenario 2: If there is a sustained break above 12.5 and 4H 50RSI then to my mind the macro level reversal from the bear run down from 17k would be reversed into a bull run but i think scenario 1 is more likely, i.e. continuation of the macro level bear run until it's completion at the double bottom.
I should have seen the reload of the 2H chart coming really - a bounce up to 11.4 isn't something i'd considered until it happened. We've had a double top with bearish exhaustion on the 1H chart's RSI and what could be a very small descending triangle forming on the 1H too. Note that the 1H is a fairly minor chart so we need to wait until midnight UTC when the 2h, 4h, 8h, 12h and 24h candles will all close. We should break back down below 11k by midnight I hope and then with the 2H chart powering downward I hope we'll make rapid downward progress. I've read an idea that 8.5k mightn't be the bottom - it may be more like 7.5k but i've not checked into that much as yet - i'll update when i've found the idea i was reading.
1) Currently challenging but losing momentum against the the 12H chart's 200 EMA. Price is sat below the line at the time of writing but the candle won't close for another 3.5 hours.
2) Currently challenging but losing momentum against the the 1D chart's 100 MA. Price is sat just above the line at the time of writing but the candle won't close for another 3.5 hours.
3) Currently challenging but losing momentum against the bear trend line limiting price since 7th January (solid thick pink trend line in the third chart)
Charts for 1), 2) and 3) below:
Entry price 11300
Target exit price 7650
Stop loss 11650