Rule 1: Wave 2 cannot retrace more than 100% of Wave 1
Rule 2: Wave 3 can never be the shortest of the three impulse waves.
Rule 3: Wave 4 can never overlap Wave 1
Guideline 1: When Wave 3 is the longest impulse wave, Wave 5 will approximately equal Wave 1
Guideline 2: The forms for Wave 2 and Wave 4 will alternate. If Wave 2 is a sharp correction, Wave 4 will be a . If Wave 2 is flat, Wave 4 will be sharp.
Guideline 3: After a 5-wave impulse advance, corrections ( ) usually end in the area of prior Wave 4 low.
Using these rules and guidelines of Theory we can make projections for Bitcoins advance or correction.
Rule 1: Wave 2 indeed did not retrace more than 100% of Wave 1
Rule 2: At present Wave 3 is the longest impulse wave of the initial two; pending Wave 5.
Rule 3: Wave 4 should therefore never touch 1198.801
Guideline 1: At present Wave 3 is the longest impulse wave. This suggests Wave 5 will be +/- 1050 points in length.
Guideline 2: As Wave 2 was a sharp correction this suggests Wave 4 will be a .
Guideline 3: The 5-wave impulse advance is not complete at present.
In the current form Wave 3 Fibonacci Extensions indicate price targets as follows:
161.80% - 1850.115
261.80% - 2918.541
Since August 2015 XBTUSD has followed an uptrending religiously. With a lower bound test and bounce no less than 4 times.
The 14-period is showing 1W unconfirmed highs (losing momentum) whereas the 1M is overbought at 81.806 with a confirmed high (continuing momentum).
Over the course of the rally from August 2015 has increased consistently. This indicates an accelerated inflow of money into Bitcoin . The increasing either signals continual ignition of the trend or ending where the trend is moving parabolic and the end is soon.
Fundamentally, this rally may be fueled by the SEC's decision to revisit their Winklevoss rejection. The approval or disapproval which may take place on or before May 15th, 2017.
In the near term I am on XBTUSD with a price target of 1850.115. If this results in the end of Wave 3 then by the rules of Theory the price of Bitcoin should not fall below 1198.801. I believe May 15th will be the key where we could see the old market adage of "Buy the rumour. Sell the news". Conversely the acceptance of a Bitcoin opens up the entire U.S. financial market for further cash inflows, even for thos who do not fully understand what cryptocurrency is.