Hedgehog_king

Confusing market? let me make it easy on you... bear power!

Short
BITMEX:XBTUSD   Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap Contract
Most of you who've been following my market weekly analysis (Also my fav' TF since it ignores all the news in the background) for the past few months know how I like chaotic messy rainbow colored charts ^_^ but also that I been super bearish since top to bottom =D
I love to see many basic but important TA/PA elements on my charts and thus I have to break it into parts for you guys <3, so lets begin:

1. The big trend:
- Main/noise - The main obvious trend is bearish , and thus the main focus should be on shorts at important resistance levels as this way you catch all/most of the really big moves.. I already seen many groups/socialPeople talking about that we hit bottom, sure rare few of them have some valid points but until there aren't confirmations for the bull run it is all just a guess which is followed by the noise of smaller TFs which is caused by corrections to the downtrend/bull traps/SLHunts.. these groups/people tend to say we bottomed on almost every rise we had so far, while ignoring the bigger picture..
- Fibunachi: I tend to say that a parabolic run should correct itself to around 0.7'-1' (3880-6k$) fib' levels, why?
because fundamentally a parabolic run isn't healthy/natural growing market, it brings to much money without real worth and can be very aggressive when panic sells going out..
and sentimentally the buyers are very hesitating and aren't rushing in when a market is falling..
thus a parabolic correction will never be good correction at the regular 0.6', 0.5', 0.3' fib levels, it will be much more aggressive..
* bearish /correction? - parabolic runs from my perspective usually end up in bearish market, BUT! from my perspective this can also be defined as a 'more aggressive correction' with expected results... my main target is 5.5k and I do expect the price to stop somewhere between 5-5.5k (Very strong S/R zone for last and current parabolic), it dosn't mean we can't spike below that, but if we go below 3880k for more then a couple of days? then even I have no idea and can't expect where the market will stop..
- trend lines - Basic and yet the most important PA from my perspective... these are the guide lines to see how strong is the overall vibe/more of the market, this was also one of my main reasons to call the top on last parabolic run at around 15-20k, and this current parabolic run since 12-14k, notice how the market reacts when we go below a trend line that the bull run created, everytime we break a treanline its more likely to try and find support on the next one, I tend to think that for a new bull run to happen after a parabolic run then we need to reset that parabolic run, how we do that? by breaking all the trend lines which were created above the first one, thus I believe we will also break below the 5th trend line before we can really start the next bull run.
- MAs - e21 was one of the final confirmations for this bear run, staying below e21+e50 is very bad and leads to very strong death cross (while both E's on down trend) which if will happen then expect a whole 6 months of bear run (which also fits to my idea about that we will start the bull run only 4-6 months after the halving)...
- Ichinoku cloud - Tenken and Kinjun death crossed (on a down trend) which is another confirmations for the big bear trend
also the Chinkou also went below the overall market movement which shows long term bear trend
and I overall as I mentioned on my last updates that if we won't see any strong push up at the 16/12 above the cloud then continuation for a bear run is more likely under the cloud until we see any sort of recovery...
- S/R zones - I showed here all the important S/R zones we need to deal with before next bull run, these zones are ideal to plan positions with market direction...
If we enter below the red S/R again, it will turn to a very strong resistance and most likely push us to 6900 line, touching this line 4-5 (1-2 more to go) times will create a very strong move crush towards the next support zones..

2. Pattern:
- Falling wedge - Yep, falling wedge is a bullish reversal/continuation pattern, so in the end we should break it at some point (with confirmed volume , and confirmed new trend after the breakout), I suspect that the best area to do so is my target support area ..

3. Volume: - Volume - if we break the bearish trend line it must be confirmed with volume ,we are getting close to breaking the descending volume activity... successful break should also be high enough above the the red volume candle.
- OBV - or as I love to call it as volume buying power, should confirm next bull run, without it we will run breakouts without active fuel to push the price up and thus if we dont have enough then we won't hold higher interest price levels.
- VPVR - showing that we are at good price interest area for liquidity, this actually a big confirmation for accumulation and very important for our next bull run.

* Conclusion: It looks like we still 'might' have a strong manipulation push trend up (with PA rules) all the way to 7840 (e50 weekly + e21 3d), if we break these then the next target is 8230-8325 (e21 weekly + e50 3d), but do remember: this type of market movement is just a natural noise of correction/bullTrap/slHunts, and is there to divert your attention form the big picture, on a bearish market you which was forming since 12-14k which I warned about since then and which was confirmed by many aspects until now, you should focus on shorts at critical resistance areas, and even if your sl hits don't panic, just move your next position to the next resistance, this is how I always catch up all the main big moves, as simple as that... don't fall for this 'btc botomed' crap as long as it wasn't confirmed and proven otherwise, our main target should remain as 5-5.5k unless we really confirm the next bull run.
my current laddering short positions are focused around 7535-7835 zone (sl: 7845), so if we come back to that area I might ladder more positions to my existing ones as well.. and another focus for me is to trade a breakdown point under 6880..

Comments

u were completley wrong lmao
Reply
rubbish
Reply
@XHE_FX, good ;)
Reply
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